Reflections on 2018 Elections

A brief look back at some themes at all levels from the most recent election on November 6th.

Federal

The US House of Representatives has each of its 435 seats come up for reelection every two years, it's an amazing thing that the power of incumbency allows the two-year swing between the two parties to usually be minimal, especially when the prevailing mood goes one way or the other.  Thus, it was of little surprise that with the retirement of many prominent Republicans in the House and an aggressive anti-Trump sentiment in the press and halls of academia, that the switchover to a Democratically- controlled congress was in the cards.  

At the same time, Trump and other Republican strategists wisely concentrated their main efforts on defending and picking up Red state senators, in order to (likely) switch three more seats in their favor in the other chamber, which has only a third of their seats come up every two years.  Effectively, I see this focus as a bit of genius on Trump's part.

Had Trump picked up both parts of the legislature, as he had during an ambitious first two years, the expectations placed upon him would have been a lot greater, the drumbeats for change would have been much stronger, once his term ended in 2020 and went for reelection.  With the division, he has a logical scapegoat, particularly when (not if) the House's Democrat leadership overplays their hand, and gets trumped.  

In two years time, the public will be fatigued by the strident partisanship and the Democrat-led house investigations, impeachments, and impediments will show what they offer as they get nothing accomplished (except with Trump's and the Senate's permission) and fully make the case for another legislative switch and Trump's reelection.  And a fresh mandate, one that they would have a hard time implementing with a small minority in the House.  Mark my words, this gain by the Democrats spells their disaster in the 2020 election.

State 

The Democratic Party had their own genius behind the election.  They got their base motivated by offering three proposals (legalizing marijuana, anti-gerrymandering, and voting reform) where a yes vote was definitely beneficial for their party, and attractive to independents.  Yet the proposals were neutral enough in character to not excite the Republicans to get to the polls to vote against them. 

Democratic candidates lined up for these proposals, Republicans came out against.  All three proposals won, along with those Democrats running for state office:  Governor, Secretary of State and Attorney General.  It also likely helped the winning margin in the US Senate race, where John James lost by about 6 percent to incumbent Debbie Stabenow.  Regionally, Michigan's senate and house remained in Republican hands, but by a bit less; state Democrats would say it is due to the gerrymandering of Michigan districts the Republicans did in 2011.

Look for some cooperation between the legislature and the governor on issues that she ran on, but don't expect this honeymoon to last long if the new governess pushes a more progressive agenda.

Local

The Mason County Commission and other county offices continue to have officers run unopposed or with token competition, as it was this year.  Since the controversy involving the wind farms died down, people just haven't been getting involved with running for the commission.  Only when an incumbent retires or resigns, does their seem to be any interest in county seats.

In Ludington, it's much the same.  In 2017 and 2018, four city council positions were vacated and replaced by city council vote.  At least two candidates applied each time.  Yet, three of the five council spots that came to the public for vote featured only the incumbent, two of which were appointed.  The two open positions saw the insider candidates Steve Miller (mayor) and Cheri Rozell (4th Ward) win convincingly over Bill Dustman and Kandi Fugere.  Insiders are defined as those already serving the City in one of its many boards who get additional boosts from the local newspaper's ingrained biases.  

Bucking a recent trend, Angela Serna, an opinionated outsider candidate inched her way past a non-exceptional appointed incumbent, Wallace Cain.  He was exceptionally good at defending the policy and actions of the City, even when it was obviously unethical or illegal.  If she remains undaunted by the status quo inertia omnipresent in the current city hall, her election could usher in a new era of citizen involvement at meetings and in future elections.  

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    Willy

    As I see it the Republicans completely botched this election as far as the House in D.C  is concerned. With so many Reps. leaving open seats and not supporting Trump and sitting on their hands for the last 2 years, they have opened the door for the Dems to start investigations on all sorts of matters dealing with Trump and his supporters. Sessions is a joke and should have fired a long time ago.

    With Dems in control of the top jobs in Michigan there seems to be no place to go but down, excluding taxes of course. 

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      XLFD

      In Ludington's Fifth Ward, The LT has learned Wally Cain has submitted a petition for a recount of Fifth Ward votes at the end of the week.  We will try to provide more information on this development as it develops.

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        Freedom Seeker

        What's involved in a recount? Does it recount the electronic ballots? Does someone physically have to put the paper ballots back through the counter box? How much will this cost? Seems like there would be more chance of error with someone rehandling paper ballots? Is there oversight?
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