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Climate Data Change: Bates and Switches
NOAA Corrects Data Inconsistent with Global Warming and Fails to Archive the Evidence Says Former Top Climate Scientist
A high-level whistleblower has told the United Kingdom's Daily Mail newspaper that America’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) breached its own rules on scientific integrity when it rushed to publish a landmark paper that exaggerated global warming and was aimed at making the maximum possible impact on world leaders including Barack Obama and David Cameron at the UN climate conference in Paris in 2015.
The report claimed that the ‘pause’ or ‘slowdown’ in global warming in the period since 1998 – revealed by UN scientists in 2013 – never existed, and instead that world temperatures had been rising faster than scientists expected. NOAA launched the results with a public relations fanfare, it was splashed across the world’s media as established fact, and cited repeatedly by politicians and policy makers.
Dr. John J. Bates led NOAA's climate-data records program for 10 years with an impeccable reputation, retiring from NOAA at the end of last year after a 40-year career in meteorology and climate science. In 2014, the Obama administration awarded him a special gold medal for his work in setting new, supposedly binding standards ‘to produce and preserve climate data records’.
Dr. Bates makes several serious charges against his former employer, and particularly the 2015 study's lead author, NOAA official Tom Karl, claiming that Karl in a "blatant attempt to intensify the impact" of the paper just before the conference:
Used unverified data sets
Ignored mandatory NOAA procedures
Failed to archive evidence
Dr. Bates, one of two Principal Scientists at the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), based in Asheville, North Carolina, noted that Karl was ‘insisting on decisions and scientific choices that maximised warming and minimised documentation… in an effort to discredit the notion of a global warming pause, rushed so that he could time publication to influence national and international deliberations on climate policy’. The flawed study was used to justify over $100 billion of expenses
NOAA’s 2015 ‘Pausebuster’ paper was based on two new temperature sets of data – both flawed- one containing measurements of temperatures at the planet’s surface on land, the other at the surface of the seas. NOAA has recently decided that the sea dataset will have to be replaced and substantially revised just 18 months after it was issued, because it used unreliable methods which overstated the speed of warming. The revised data will show both lower temperatures and a slower rate in the recent warming trend. The sea dataset used by Thomas Karl and his colleagues tripled the warming trend over the sea during the years 2000 to 2014.
The red line shows the current NOAA world temperature graph - elevated in recent years due to the ‘adjusted’ sea data. The blue line is the Met Office's independent HadCRUT4 record. Although they are offset in temperature by 0.12°C due to different analysis techniques, they reveal that NOAA has been adjusted and so shows a steeper recent warming trend.
Dr Bates said: ‘They had good data from buoys. And they threw it out and “corrected” it by using the bad data from ships. You never change good data to agree with bad, but that’s what they did – so as to make it look as if the sea was warmer.’
The land temperature dataset used by the study was afflicted by devastating bugs in its software that rendered its findings ‘unstable’; every time the raw temperature readings were run through the computer, it gave different results. The results from Karl's findings found past temperatures had been cooler than previously thought, and recent ones higher – so that the warming trend looked steeper for the period 2000-2014.
The paper relied on a preliminary, ‘alpha’ version of the data which was never approved or verified. A final, approved version has still not been issued. None of the data on which the paper was based was properly ‘archived’ – a mandatory requirement meant to ensure that raw data and the software used to process it is accessible to other scientists, so they can verify NOAA results.
The paper was published in June 2015 by the journal Science. Entitled ‘Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus’, the document said the widely reported ‘pause’ or ‘slowdown’ was a myth. Two years earlier, scientists from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) put forth a study showing a much smaller increasing trend over the past 15 years 1998-2012 than over the past 30 to 60 years’.
The Pausebuster paper said while the rate of global warming from 1950 to 1999 was 0.113C per decade, the rate from 2000 to 2014 was actually higher, at 0.116C per decade. The IPCC’s claim about the pause, it concluded, ‘was no longer valid’. The impact was huge, and gave impetus to those who touted the dangers of global warming in Paris and ever since.
Dr Bates revealed that the failure to archive and make available fully documented data not only violated NOAA rules, but also those set down by Science. Before he retired last year, he continued to raise the issue internally. Then came the final bombshell. Dr Bates said: ‘I learned that the computer used to process the software had suffered a complete failure,’ meaning the Pausebuster paper can never be replicated or verified by other scientists.
Dr. Bates said he decided to speak out after seeing reports in papers including the Washington Post and Forbes magazine claiming that scientists feared the Trump administration would fail to maintain and preserve NOAA’s climate records. ‘How ironic it is that there is now this idea that Trump is going to trash climate data, when key decisions were earlier taken by someone whose responsibility it was to maintain its integrity – and failed.’
After Karl's paper was published, the US House of Representatives Science Committee launched an inquiry into its Pausebuster claims. NOAA refused to comply with subpoenas demanding internal emails from the committee chairman, the Texas Republican Lamar Smith, and falsely claimed that no one had raised concerns about the paper internally. NOAA argued the point that taxpayer-paid scientists don't have to disclose their E-mails with other taxpayer-paid scientists about a taxpayer-paid study.
The scandal may sound a bit like the ‘Climategate’ affair which broke shortly before the UN climate summit in 2009, when the leak of thousands of emails between climate scientists suggested they had manipulated and hidden data. Both scandals suggest a lack of transparency and, according to Dr Bates, a failure to observe proper ethical standards.
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Replies to This Discussion
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Permalink Reply by Willy on
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These people will not stop until they have created a World Government that will control all human activity on Earth.The Global Climate change hoax is a part of the deceptive propaganda that is being legitimized to use as an excuse to control people and is part of Agenda 21 which is the master plan for controlling all human activity on Earth. Ludington and Mason County became part of the Agenda 21 family when it was aided by an Agenda 21 connected organization during the recent creation of a new Master Plan.
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Permalink Reply by XLFD on
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Don't get me started on the 2015 Ludington Master Plan, and how it starts off with junk science and alarmism claiming that global warming (aka climate change, when trends show cooling) will have a major effect on our locale. This doesn't scare me even if it comes true, because our area would only benefit from warmer temperatures. But our local leaders buy it hook line and sinker (LIAA's Dog and Pony Show Plays to Captivated Audiences), which should scare everyone who has a healthy scientific skepticism. They spent upwards of $30,000 to make master plans for the County, City of Ludington, Hamlin Twp and PM Twp that featured chapters that fantastically stated that our kids could see Michigan's climate turn into a climate like they are currently experiencing in Oklahoma.
LIAA's Dr. Andresen was trying to say our winter extreme cold temperatures will continue to moderate-- just before we had the coldest February on record in Ludington. The problem is, our leaders will take this as a blueprint to develop a whole lot of crazy ideas and put the rationale underneath the radar.
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X, it was hard to believe how easily local officials were influenced into not only accepting and including the climate change propaganda into the Master Plan but also how easily they submitted to being puppets of the Agenda 21 philosophy. I guess stupid is alive and well in Mason County.
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Permalink Reply by Dave on
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I'll be the first to agree that there is indeed climate change..... whether or not its caused by humans is the real question.... and that's not to say that we as humans can't do things like recycle and such. With that said, there is so much misinformation out there anymore that its tough to know who or what is actually truthful and accurate. One week you'll see something about the ice caps shrinking, the next week you'll see something about how the ice caps are bigger than they have been in centuries... its this type of stuff that gives me pause when it comes to the information and whether or not to believe its true or not.
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Permalink Reply by jfc123 on
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Climate change or not I !00% agree with recycling our earths resources! These need to be stretched as long as possible, not for us but for our great grand children! We, in the not so far out future, will be mining our landfills for precious material buried in the past! Maybe then the dump east of Madison/Water St will be dug up and cleaned? Probably in the master plan, but then dump it in the PM Bayou with all the other shi*?
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The master plan urges smart growth, sustainability and other green policies, some of which are reasonable on their face, but none of those policies in the master plan or in the city's leaders radar has the cleanups of the environmental damage the city has inflicted on the public due to their negligence and their ability to dodge the EPA and DEQ requirements because they are a public agency/utility.
The basis behind the 'climate change' crisis is to 'inorganically' change the way we live by allowing extra powers to the government in taking over rights of individuals to make their own decisions. This supposedly benefits all, but the end result is quite different. I will be publishing an article tomorrow on how Ludington is about to enter into a costly transition towards 'smart growth', with a big step coming up at this Monday's meeting.
By all means, continue recycling and keep your properties free of pollution. But we must also insist, and insist strongly, that "OUR GOVERNMENT NEEDS TO DO THE SAME IN EVERYTHING THEY DO". The City of Ludington shows repeatedly they lack the moral authority to transform our city into something other than what the citizens want in it; I'd strip them of more power before having anybody give up any more of their rights or property to them and their off-based theories.
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One truth that we do know Dave is that the Earth's climate has been changing for 4.5 billion years. Michigan was once a sea of molten lava, part of the Keweenawan Rift which was formed some 1.1 billion years ago. I doubt humans caused that. There have been many ice ages during the Earth's existence. Those extreme freezing and warming periods certainly weren't caused by humans and their cars and cattle farting in the wind. The sooner we wake up and realize that we are being duped by the climate change monkeys the better.
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The climate change monkeys, aka the anthropomorphic global warming denier deniers.
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What I worry about and very little attention is paid to it is the extreme number of aircraft flying in the upper atmosphere per day. If we are going to experience any problems from human caused environmental problems my guess would be that this is the area we should be concerned with.
This animation shows all scheduled flights over a 24h period (based on 2008 data). Every day 93,000 flights are starting from approx. 9,000 airports. At all times there are between 8,000 and 13,000 airplanes in the air. This animation was produced by the Institute of Applied Information Technology (InIT), Zurich University of Applied Sciences.
Below is the a video of Europes daily flight schedule.
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