4D Chess

[Barney Reinberg]

Head Fake
There is a lot of controversy behind the emergency funding. Lawsuits were filed quicker than a caravan moving from Guatemala. These lawsuits have bottled up potential funding for the foreseeable future. But, I’m not convinced that emergency funding will be needed. In fact, Republicans and Democrats maybe begging Trump to accept funding. Maybe they saw it coming; possibly they just saw a faint light in the distance. But that light is a high speed train headed right for them.
Money in the Bank
The 2018 spending bill, Trump received 1.6 billion for a boarder wall. Far short of the 5 billion requested. Trump and some Republicans had hoped to make up the difference in the current spending bill. After a government shut down and checking under the sofa cushions, congress came up with 1.375 billion for new wall and Trump found 900 million from the sofa. If the 900 million is usable, that gives the president 3.875 billion for new boarder wall.
Good with the Bad
Everyone agrees that the president signed a bad spending bill. Even Trump will agree that this is a bad deal. Now, the mainstream media is telling you once again Nancy Pelosi got one over on Trump. Trump news networks are telling you all the additional items that Democrats slapped in just because they could. Exploring all the worst case scenarios the bill has to offer.
Here is something no one is actually telling us. This bill, the entire bill expires at the end of September 2019. Yep, we have eight months of this and then it’s over. So, October 1st, we start this all over again.
End of the Road
So, what are the chances the Democrats give Trump additional boarder wall funding? Worried about a government shut or Pelosi winning again? I don’t think we have to worry; Democrats just might be willing to step in and save the day.
Modus Operandi
The emergency funding plays a small roll in this, but I’m not actually sure of its significance. The reason may have been the certainty of a long drawn out legal battle. Just get to process started and for future leverage. It is an unknown, because emergency funding may not be needed.
Hunt for Red October
So, the lawsuits are in place and the battle is under way. A new spending bill is needed and the fight for boarder funding is underway once again. Everyone is ready for the fight, they’re ready to show Trump once again who is running Washington DC. I’m willing to bet they give Trump the meager amount he requests. Why? Because spending caps come due in 2020.
Can’t We All Just Get Along
Spending caps are limits on spending set by congress. Unless congress approves spending above the cap limits, spending fall back to the agreed upon limits in the 2011 Budget Control Act. Enforcing 2011 budget act will reduce military spending by 71 billion. It will also reduce nondefense spending by a similar amount. 142 billion in spending cuts is on the table. The start of 2020 looks pretty dark for a politician.
The Honey Badger
It is hard to think of anything that would hurt a politician more than taking away spending money. Trump has been at odds with both sides of the aisle. Republican’s did him no favors in the recent spending bill negations. Trump does not owe them any favors. So, Washington politicians will be faced with a big question starting October 1st. Do we give Trump the boarder wall money in a new spending bill? Or, do we risk a 142 billion at the start of 2020?
I hear that train a commin’

[Willy]

I doubt the Dems and  Republicans will ever approve money for the wall over and above what is now being approved. There will be another Government shut down come the end of this budget. I don't think the Dems are foolish enough to let this die in October. I suspect there is wording somewhere in the bill that will continue to cut off the flow of funds. There are a lot of smart lawyers involved with this deal and it's going to take a true genius to get past them.