MSU's Tom Izzo: Best Coach in Modern NCAA Tournament?

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In an article on sports statistics, which I must admit I'm a sucker for, Michigan State University basketball coach Tom Izzo, shows himself as a statistical anomaly in a rating of modern era NCAA Tournament basketball coaches. 

This year his team came into the tournament as a #7 seed, and they survived the first weekend's two games, which is unusual for a #7 seed, as they often have to upset a #2 seed to do so.  But this is not unfamiliar territory for Izzo.  Izzo's Spartans have compiled a record of 13-1 in the round of 32 (the second game), and have reached the Final Four (winning four tournament games) more often than losing in the first weekend.

We can track where Izzo ranks among all tournament coaches in the 64-team bracket era by comparing his actual wins to the number we’d expect of a team with the same seedings and pre-tournament Simple Rating System (SRS) ratings. And — spoiler alert — he’s No. 1 by a wide margin.

The methodology of this system is rather simple; the records from the modern era is compiled and we find the expected number of wins that each seed has gotten over that period.  A #1 seed typically is expected to win 3.3 games, a #7 seed will win 0.9 games historically. 

Thus, even if MSU loses the next game, Izzo will have exceeded his expected number of wins by 1.1, but then we find he has historically been an overachiever like no other coaches, even some of the most successful ones, like Duke's Coach Krzyzewski, Kansas' Coach Brown, and Louisville's Coach Pitino.   

Statistically significant in a major way, Tom Izzo is seven standard deviations above the norm, which indicates that there is something extra that he brings to the court.  This could have something to do with his coaching style or perhaps even having the ability to specialize in grooming and selecting the right types of players to take him deep into the tournament. 

For more stats, look at the links in this article:  Tom Izzo Is The Best Coach In Modern NCAA Tournament History — By Far