Predictions for the Local August 2014 Primaries

[XLFD]

Here are some of the local ballot issues and candidates and some predictions made solely from my perspectives of the electorate.  The predictions are made as independent as possible from my own opinion of the candidates and issues, which will also be expressed.  First, the state proposal 14-1:

This has endorsements from many notable quarters, but the ballot language is confusing enough that those who see it for the first time and those who have researched it, should find it difficult to back, unless they benefit from it.  Most individuals probably won't benefit from it.  Opposition from left and right wing groups as of late spells trouble in the water.  Look for it to fail, gathering around 45% of the vote.

This contested race in the Michigan 1st representative district is a good one, featuring a Constitutional Republican challenger (Arcand) vs. a struggling Dr. Dan Benishek.  Arcand is a strong candidate running a vigorous campaign to the north, and I see him upsetting the experts by winning with 52% from an energized group of voters that prefer Arcand's conservatism.

Even though this has been praised by our area's law enforcement and media ad infinitum over the last month without any organized opposition other than some truth-seekers on this site, this will be a close vote.  The ballot language and the cheesy rationale used for levying this millage may succeed in an August election where the forces for the initiative gets the vote out, but the facts seem to make a weak case for making this tax a fixture, and so I see it getting just under 50%, and thereby failing.

Benefitting from a strong showing in Lake County and widespread name-recognition in Mason County, Craig Cooper will gain about 38% of the vote, followed by Spaniola at 23% buoyed by his experience and high-profile cases, statistically tied with Susan Sniegowski at 23% helped by her attempt to be our first female judge, and anchored by David Glancy, supported by 16% of voters who don't believe prosecutors make the best judges. 

Unfortunately, my favorability ratings have Sniegowski, Glancy, Cooper and Spaniola, in that order.  My belief is Susan or David would have likely went though if it were a three way race with the other missing. 

Basically, this district is the northern part of Ludington and some of PM Township, and both are great people in the community who have both served in legislative capacity; Wally as a city councilor, and Susan as a county commissioner back when there were ten.  In those capacities, Susan had the best record, which will help the county commission to get its third woman aboard, winning with about 59% of the vote. 

The only other contested primary in the county pits Hull vs. Nichols in the contentious 5th District (southern part of the county).  Mary Nichols is an incumbent that more closely represents the people of the district, even though Steven is a fairly good candidate, and could likely win elsewhere.  Nichols will win with about 66% and deservedly continue to serve.

Again, there is very little science beyond these predictions (about as much as selecting the Red Wings winning in six games of a series), beyond my perceptions of the psychology of the masses in this area.  I include no uncontested primaries in this thread, or initiatives that won't be on this ballot.

[AQUAMAN]

I agree with all your predictions with one exception X. Hoping and praying that the name recognition of another Cooper will fail, (like Henderson's for more terms), based on 35+ years of that name already on the ballots forever. I am hoping that the electorate agrees, and finds Spaniola or Glancy a better experienced candidate than the 29ish year old that has none to speak of. Now let's all go VOTE Tuesday! 

[XLFD]

Even Nostradamus had to report the bad news, and Cooper is not likely to finish worse than second since most voters don't interact with the Circuit Court to formulate a solid opinion on the current Judge Cooper.  Being tough on crime is a good selling point which Judge Cooper has, but those in the know also know that he is tough on justice at times.  Plus Little Cooper's advantage in Lake County gives him a strong base against the three other Mason County candidates with little or no experience in that county or any base of support. 

This advantage will be reduced this fall, if he is one of the candidates.

[Willy]

Sound reasoning on all your predictions. All the advertising about how prop. 14-1 will help businesses, create thousands of new jobs and not raise taxes will probably get folks to vote yes. Scare tactics will most likely help in getting the 911 mils passed. It's going to be hard to beat name recognition and the name Cooper has been around a long time. The County Commissioners spots are up for grabs, however, name recognitions may also help Taranko.

[XLFD]

I'm counting on some significant last minute hemming on proposition 14-1 as many read the bill for the first time and don't connect it to the beneficial proposal they heard of.  It's passage or failure will likely signify how other proposals will fare this November.

Taranko's showing against Cox showed that his name recognition had its limits, and I think Boes will win over the Republican primary voter's hearts more than him.  But Boes also lost her last race in Ludington, so it could be a toss up if I misjudged the voters.

[AQUAMAN]

Preliminary voters in the early voting, esp. in August, are strange, and not real for all intents and purposes. They are the "fringe" in voters, not really the mass, as much as the marginal and cronies imho. The ones that have the inside passage and set-ups, not like the mass in November that really feel the reason to be patriotic and make a real dif.. Now, I gotta go fishing soon....lol. Much more important to me! 

[wildfire]

Well why do they need to raise the taxes, who in the world wants to pay more on their taxes n then  give it to 911 , that is nuts, from what i have been reading that town has plenty of money that's probley not begin used. I wouldn't want cooper son in his chair if he's going to NOT for the instint  n he puts all them away n lets they liers n quilty ones still run free, n Spaniola well I do not want him in their is all i'am going to say about him. glancy doesn't attend to his clinits most of the time so i see him as lazy , now the lady Sniegowski I have herd that name some where before but her working for C.O.V.E. she see's all the women maybe who comes in their n maybe he can tell if their are lieing or not that say they are batted but their has never been a women judge so I think why not give her a shot at it it can't get any worse then someone following footsteps unless its for the good but when people in runnings LIE to get a VOTE that isn't begin truthfull n that to be tells me that they WON'T be behind that judges desk either so everybody better think good n long on this one.

[XLFD]

The same people who claim to want to help the poor and middle class, are almost always the same people who want to raise their taxes to do so, or bring in a new tax to make the area less desirable for businesses and people who want to move here.  New millages almost always stay with us beyond the time they are allotted for, because people have a lot easier time to renew rather than add a tax. 

These ballot issues were ones on the state-approved ballots on the Secretary of State's site.  What wasn't included was the LMTA (Dial-a-Ride) millage request to bump their millage from 1.0 to 1.25.  This will grant the service an extra $250,000 to try and expand their services to Hamlin Township and beyond, which the public seems to be against.  There is an efficiency element at work here too.  If Dial-a-Ride measures increased ridership as success, then they lose more money by being successful.  I find it hard to justify raising their millage when it also has given us no good reason why they need to.

As for Susan Sniegowski, she is probably the best choice in a flawed field, and has a fair chance of moving on to November if the electorate is more informed than I give them credit for.

[XLFD]

Nostradamus I ain't.  Hull and Taranko win their county commissioner seats, all proposals/millage requests pass in the county with ease, Dr. Benishek survives, and it's still too early to call the judge race other than note that Glancy is out of it, and so may Cooper be unless he can recover about 400 votes in the last seven precincts of Lake County. 

[AQUAMAN]

That's about exactly what I voted No on X. Not good news. But, it's what it is, so report again Wed. and tell us the actual results, and see how that looks. Thanks. (PS) it sure sucks that the majority of "uninformed voters" are letting the politicians "BILK" the public! I just wonder, How Many of Them actually pay a fair amount of taxes around here? I suspect they have to be alot of renters that don't see it affect their pocketbook in the way of direct deductions in their take home pay. Or better yet, that they are so wealthy, they agree with a socialist society that only takes pennies away from them, while it costs the little guys so much that they need for survival. 

[AQUAMAN]

 Looks like Cooper wasn't ready yet...lol. It's Spaniola and SS in November. Old foes, should be interesting. Can't post link with Google Chrome right now for MCP news. Any help? Thanks.  

[AQUAMAN]

Looked like 24% participation in the primary, dull and inconclusive for the real population here. That 911 proposal should be on the ballot again in November, so more voters get their voice on this budget that is not ringing true to color!