The Ludington Mayoral Primary: Signs, Predictions and Pokes

[XLFD]

The Ludington mayor race will be cut down in half as far as candidates go when voters go to the polls in trickles on Tuesday.  We have no scientific poll as far as how this race will go, so I am making some predictions based on what I have noticed, and my gut feelings, which aren't always right (recall I predicted the historic district was going to be enacted by the city council). 

 

Signs

 

On a rain-threatened afternoon last week, I took my bicycle through the streets and all wards of Ludington to look at the yard sign situation.  I would say that Ryan Cox has more signs out there than anyone else, which is the sign of an organized campaign, he is followed by Wally Taranko, then Pete Engblade, then lastly, Dave Kosla.  In my meanderings, I saw only three Kosla signs, which means he either has not mobilized properly, or the City Enforcement Officer has been pulling his signs up. 

 

I also took note on which campaigns allowed their signs to be placed in the street's right-of-way (ROW).  Ludington allows such placement of temporary election signs in the ROW, and has been lenient this year and the last, but in 2011 they went onto people's lawns and took zoning compliant signs, and it seemed to coincide with a certain person running that year who was banned from the Ludington City Hall and Police Station for making too many FOIA requests.

 

I noted before I started counting that I would count only the first 30 signs in the ROW, claimed illegal and non-compliant in the 2011 election, and make some conclusion from that.  But it was a close race-- after the first 19 signs Cox, Engblade and Taranko were tied at six apiece, but then Cox pulled away, scoring 12 in the final tally, nine for Taranko, eight for Engblade and one for Kosla.  Isn't it interesting that the three law enforcement candidates put up 29 of the 30 supposedly non-compliant signs?  In this metric, both Cox and Engblade did well, since Engblade had the highest rate of signs in the ROW.

 

Predictions

 

One of the things I base my prediction on is where the demographics are going in this four-way battle for the heart and minds of the locals.  Wally Taranko has name recognition, and is generally an overall nice guy, a mostly beloved former police chief and Red Cross volunteer, current City Councilor, with few political weaknesses, other than what's accounted for on the Ludington Torch.  I see him gathering around 40% of the primary vote, and going as top-seed into the November election.

 

The rest of the vote is more dynamic, I see the second place finisher having about 25% of the vote, and winning primarily based on organization skills.  Engblade should have the edge in this regard, having won election three times before as a Fifth Ward Councilor, but Cox has shown some competency in this regard.  Kosla will likely draw more votes away from Engblade rather than Cox, so I have to give Cox the advantage if he actively works to get his supporters to the polls.  But it's a toss up for second.

 

Pokes

 

And here's a little fun regarding the four men who would be mayor.  Let me point out that each of the men have great biographies and love for their current homeland, but each has failed to address the many political liabilities Ludington is currently experiencing and the absence of ethics in our local government.  The two survivors will have their chance to do so here at the Ludington Torch.

 

-- Where's Wally

 

Play the new game that Ludington citizens love to play.  Wondering where Wally is when the City Manager is agreeing to no-bid $95,000 contracts outside of open meetings; where Wally is when the current police chief is drafting letters of trespass for public places, later approved by Wally as a policy instead of an ordinance.  See if you can find Wally in this section of Stearn's Beach.  Receive a bonus for finding Mayor Henderson and City Manager John Shay lurking about at the beach.

 

 

--SLEngblade

 

I couldn't help but notice that Pete Engblade's last name was kind of like that old movie "Slingblade", but then I looked closer and there were more similarities than I originally thought. 

 

"Some folks call him an Eng Blade, I call him a Kaiser Blade. He's kind of a wood handle, kind of like an axe handle. With a long blade on him shaped kinda like a bananer. Mhm. Sharp on one edge, and dull on the other. Mhm."

But Pete does not have any unresolved issues with his mother that we know of, unlike the character in that movie:

 

When asked about how his campaign was going , SLEngblade was rather candid:

 

 

--Pronounce it "Ryan Cox" Next Time:

 

Strange results came back from my pollster where she asked people on the streets of Ludington whether they liked Ryan Cox or not.  Over 90% of the men asked responded in the negative, while the women seemed to be about 90% favorable.  The riddle of this gender difference was finally figured out when our pollster admitted that she thought there was a "d" in the middle of his first name. 

 

 

 

 

 

--A Dave Kosla Joke:

 

When he was first interviewed on the radio, Dave explained that his last name was not pronounced 'Koz-la', but 'Koh-sla' and told everyone to just remember "cole slaw" when they wonder how to pronounce it properly.  Which leads to this joke:

 

Q:  How is Dave Kosla getting elected and voting against all legislation a lot like too-creamy cole slaw?

A:  Both have too much mayor-nays (mayonnaise).

[Willy]

Funny X, especially the "d" added in Ryan. It took a while but I found the heads of the 3 stooges in your picture. I think your analysis about who finishes on top is a correct one. I to am concerned that none of the candidates made mention of or even seemed concerned with how the ethics of the current group running Ludington is questionable. I hope whom ever is elected doesn't slip into Henderson's shoes and find them a comfortable fit because Ludington needs a solid leader who will obey and follow the laws and ordinances that we all must live by.

[XLFD]

Ironically, the two people I believe are more likely to make it out of the primary are the two most likely not to do anything about the status quo as regards ethical and transparent behavior.  Which isn't funny. 

But if we ever do get a Mayor Ryan Cox, he can at least share high school stories with our sister city in Wisconsin, Manitowoc Mayor Justin Nichols.  These guys look more like Presidents of the local student council-- which isn't necessarily bad-- but there is something to be said for wisdom acquired through age.  And I can wear out that 'd' in the middle of his first name gag, LOL.

[Wonder Woman]

My prediction is Taranko & Cox winning the primary.  As far as Cox's age, I think that is beneficial.  I believe he's in his young 30's, which isn't a kid anymore.  He looks younger than his age, but I think having a youthful energy could be exactly what this city needs.  It's great that more young people are getting involved in this community.  And Ryan isn't part of the Ludington good-old-boys system....he's an outsider from Scottville.  He may bring new ideas and a new approach to governing.

[XLFD]

I hope you're right, WW, but in the forums and the limited scope and range of the questions asked, new ideas and new approaches didn't really come through in Cox's answers.  Taranko and Cox seem to foreshadow that they would carry on Hendersonian style policy and leadership. 

That's why I would encourage those who trust in youth to consider Kosla, whose answers generally varied from the other three, and seemed more akin to the conservative values prevalent in our area.  If you want an outsider from Scottville, you might as well write my name in the space provided and muck your vote.

[XLFD]

You're free to support the idea that Cox is anti-union, but I don't think the "highly informative" debates sponsored by the local paper and chamber of commerce have brought that out. 

Ryan Cox is a teacher, who has had to belong to a union; just going against the union's dicta doesn't make one anti-union, it makes you appear as if you are capable of thinking on your own without the union steward's help, IMO.

[XLFD]

The final results of the mayoral primary:  Taranko:  450, Cox:  375, Engblade:  192, Kosla: 97.

 

That has Taranko at 40% (40.395 %), Cox:  33.66%, Engblade:  17.235%, and Kosla:  8.26%.  Cox overachieved in getting the second spot I forecasted, but I nailed Taranko's percentage in my above prediction. 

In retrospect, Engblade screwed up big time by trying to get the same votes Cox and Taranko were trying to get, and forgot his base.  Kosla's message was indistinct and inconsistent with his image and policies.  Still, I liked these two more than the ones I predicted would get the tickets out of the primary.  Try again in four years.