Trust Observations, Not Compromised Scientists and Media

[XLFD]

Corporate media has a way of focusing on scientists who make outrageous claims, that is, if they follow their accepted science orthodoxies.  Scientists and media, however, are usually smart enough to not make a forecast or claim that will be disproved in just a matter of days when their statements and articles are still fresh off the presses and still being 'liked' on social media.  

Great Lakes Now, an initiative of PBS and Detroit Public TV, admits it brings 'audiences news and information about the impact of climate change, pollution, and aging infrastructure on the Great Lakes and drinking water. This independent journalism is supported by the Charles Stewart Mott Foundation."  The Mott Foundation has a long history of supporting causes and projects sympathetic to showing global warming/climate change is real and at the crisis level.

Which could explain why their initiative GLN ran with a story headlined:  "Great Lakes researchers predict record-low ice coverage."  Just five days ago on this last Tuesday, we were told:

"The Great Lakes’ annual winter freeze is “off to a slow start,” with ice coverage “well below average for this time of year,” said James Kessler, a scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory.

The laboratory’s most recent projection showed that only 12.3% of the lakes’ surfaces are likely to freeze before spring. Although annual maximum ice coverage is highly variable from year to year, this year’s forecast predicts unusually scant amounts of ice.

It’s “typical to have ice cover as high as 75% or as low as 25% percent for that annual maximum value,” said Kessler."

                                      Climate Scientist James Kessler posing next to his 12% ice coverage

Current NOAA numbers indicate that, as of yesterday (four days after Kessler's forecast of 12.3% coverage of all Great Lakes) the ice coverage of the Great Lakes is at 21.89% and climbing.  That's nearly twice the forecast, and we've still got a week of January before the likely maximum will happen next month.  Going further, Kessler suggests with authority:

 “Michigan and Huron were both projected to be lower than they’ve been as far as the maximum ice cover for the year, about 10 and 12%, respectively, where the lowest on record was about 13 and 23%, respectively.”

As of yesterday, the ice coverage for the two lakes is at 17.3 and 33.75% respectively, with Lake Huron approaching three times the coverage shown by Kessler and his incorrect models (which were already woefully wrong when they were published).  Kessler stays true to his alarmist message for the rest of the article, claiming no benefits for the low ice cover, while saying it could deeply affect tourism where ice fishing is important, could create more lake effect snow, and harm certain microorganisms and fish that thrive on high ice cover.  

Earlier today, disgraced prognosticator Kessler dismissed his four-day-old error on Mlive:  

“We’re still pretty early in the ice season,” said James Kessler, a scientist who also models ice cover at GLERL. “When you saw record lows predicted, that was based on information from December. Since then, some of the teleconnection indices have changed considerably. We re-ran the model and they are much higher predictions, closer to average.”

I suppose if we actually trusted Kessler's model predicting the ice cover for the rest of the season before, we should now trust it even more once it has been shown to be incredibly wrong.  

[Willy]

The problem is that many people believe people like Kessler who use their credential to push phony politically motivated schemes, such as declaring climate change is destroying the Earth when in fact climate change is a continuos process in Earths evolution. People must do their own research and stop considering these phony scientists's words as the "Gospel's truth". Below are 2 videos. The first shows just how fast ice can form on the Great Lakes. It's a time lapse of a Lake Erie of approximately 3 days. The second video is of Lake Michigan showing how fast ice can dissipate. Thanks for the information X. This topic covers many subjects that could be topics all on their own. Especially the leftist foundations.

Time lapse of Lake Erie ice build up after just 3 days.

Time lapse of Lake Michigan ice break up

[XLFD]

We've been following the climate change crisis over the dozen plus years of the Ludington Torch, and the totally unscientific approach of those journalists, politicians, and scientists trying to sell the existential fear porn behind it.  Debunking the crazy calls for the world ending and people dying miserably of global warming events has made it a lot easier to dismiss all of the anti-science hysteria that came with the Covid-19 pandemic crisis. 

Both belong in drama class, not the science lab.  You mention all of the additional ways we could go with this in just the realm of climate science, but you could also go to other disciplines that have been ruined by adding politics to the beaker, such as medicine and sociology. 

If the ones trumpeting the concept of 'science' eschew the scientific method or scientific debate, you can bet they are pushing propaganda and borrowing science for credibility, just like Joe Biden does with Tom Hanks.  In the end, science and Hanks just get devalued by their illegitimate use. 

[Willy]

[XLFD]

As of January 26, according to NOAA, ice coverage of the Great Lakes is at a seasonal high of 30.32%, with coverages of Lakes Michigan and Huron at 24.48% and 48.56% respectively.  Expect even bigger numbers coming up once February comes around.

[Willy]

Good information X.

[XLFD]

The greatest ice coverage of the great lakes for the winter of 2021-22 was 56.11%, as can be found in the link to NOAA in the article.  As such it was above the long-term average of 55, and well over four times the amount predicted for this winter by climate alarmist James Kessler and his flawed models in January.

[Willy]

Thanks for that information X. I bet Kessler still gets his funding even though his research is faulty. Most people do not realize that we are still in an ice age. When the polar caps are covered in ice, that constitutes an ice age. Ice ages have been occurring for the past 2.4 billion years. The last one, which we are currently in, started 2.6 million years ago and during that time the ice has ebbed and flowed a dozen times. I don't believe Neanderthals were required to regulate the emissions from their SUV's back then, so it's obvious that if they did not cause climate change then we, humanity, did not cause any of the modern so called climate change. If anyone stepped out of their igloos in the ludington area 18,000 years ago they would have had to dig over a mile down through the ice just to touch dirt. The real scientists know that the cause for this extreme change in climate in Earth's history has been the fault of the sun and it's regular and natural rhythmic cycles and the variations in the Earth's orbit. I hope people wake up before the Lefties ruin society with their phony science.