2007 and 2012 Global Warming Prophecies are Getting Colder

[XLFD]

In 2007, Former US Vice President Al Gore won the Nobel Peace Prize and accepted it in Oslo, Norway.  He used the occasion to cite an American climatologist, Wieslaw Maslowski and his dire predictions about the polar ice caps to the north of us. 

 

 

Maslowski used climatological data from the years 1979 to 2004 and said that by the year 2013 the polar ice cap would be completely gone.  In fact, when he incorporated the data received from 2005 to 2007, where summer melting reduced the polar ice cover to the smallest ever extent in modern times, he said: 

"Our projection of 2013 for the removal of ice in summer is not accounting for the last two minima, in 2005 and 2007.  So given that fact, you can argue that maybe our projection of 2013 is already too conservative.  My claim is that the global climate models underestimate the amount of heat delivered to the sea ice by oceanic advection.  The reason is that their low spatial resolution actually limits them from seeing important detailed factors.  We use a high-resolution regional model for the Arctic Ocean and sea ice forced with realistic atmospheric data. This way, we get much more realistic forcing, from above by the atmosphere and from the bottom by the ocean."

 

Professor Peter Wadhams from Cambridge University, UK, another expert on Arctic ice made his own prediction at the same time. He used sonar data collected by Royal Navy submarines to show that the volume loss is outstripping even area withdrawal, which is in agreement with the model result of Professor Maslowski.

"Some models have not been taking proper account of the physical processes that go on.  The ice is thinning faster than it is shrinking; and some modelers have been assuming the ice was a rather thick slab.  Wieslaw's model is more efficient because it works with data and it takes account of processes that happen internally in the ice.  The implication is that this is not a cycle, not just a fluctuation. The loss this year will precondition the ice for the same thing to happen again next year, only worse.  There will be even more opening up, even more absorption and even more melting.  [Read more]

 

 

But in 2008 and 2009 the stats went the wrong way and the climatologists looked rather foolish.  After these years of recovery, unexpected by Maslowski and Wadhams, three years of decline came back and 2012 turned out to be a new low for arctic ice cover.  Wadhams made a bolder prediction than before:

 

 

Maslowski got back into the thick of things revising his estimate once again into the near future by saying that large uncertainties remain, but his revised extrapolation gives a date of 2016 for a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean, with the end likely to come by the end of the decade.

 

Instead, days before the annual autumn re-freeze is due to begin this year in 2013, an unbroken ice sheet more than half the size of Europe already stretches from the Canadian islands to Russia's northern shores. The Northwest Passage from the Atlantic to the Pacific has remained blocked by pack-ice all year. More than 20 yachts that had planned to sail it have been left ice-bound.  Maslowski and Wadhams may be on one of those, because they have remained rather quiet in their predictions this year.

[Willy]

Nice work X and in a nutshell this is why we've got wind towers shoved up our a_ses and Gore and his buddies have raked in billions of dollars from all of this phony science.

[XLFD]

A helpful caveat would be to distrust all science that is used to support a political agenda and all scientists that ignore data contradictory to their premises and theories.  Economic science, nutrition science, social science, and climatologic science (to name a few of the worst offenders) are riddled with junk theories due to their sciences not adhering to the high ideals of the scientific method and peer review.