Forecasts for Great Lakes Winter 2015 Agree: Colder Than Normal

[XLFD]

 As we finally get some hot and humid seasonal weather for August here in Michigan, let's look forward to what the experts have forecasted for the upcoming winter months, to see whether we have a replay of last years polar blast or a reprieve. 

The forecasts of a potentially strong El Nino forming in the Pacific Ocean has led to forecasts of higher temperatures and dryer than normal out west.  This potential seems to be dropping, but only the few weather prediction sites that expect it to develop in force, believe the Great Lakes area will be affected by it to give us a mild winter.  Most expect us to be more affected by the continued coolness of the lake and victimized by polar vortices and an unfriendly jet stream again.  This is what a climate scientist by the name of Matthew Holliday sees as coming this winter, with his rationale following: 

Northeast and Great Lakes: A good portion of the Northeast will likely experience a colder-than-average winter, but it really depends on where you’re located. Places in the northern Northeast like Maine could actually have around average temperatures and snowfall, while regions more to the south and along the coast may feel the effects of heavier snowfall and brutally cold air.

The Great Lakes region will be brutally cold; however lake-effect snowfall could be considerably less this year. This was hard for me to include on my winter map, which is why I wanted to mention it here. Waters on the lakes are still very cold from this past winter with chunks of ice that were still being spotted as late as this past July 4th. This will likely have an effect on the lake-effect snow machine this upcoming winter.

Farmers Almanac is also predicting a colder than average winter, and here is the amazingly accurate forecast they did for last year, just in case you think they are so-so at predicting:

This forecaster agrees, colder than average winter.  Weather Alert Central.com's map also leaves us out in the cold:

Midwest – Slight Below Average Precipitation and Below Average Temperatures

As you can see in all predictions, there are places in the USA where temperatures will be warmer and places where they will be colder than normal.  This runs true for the rest of the world, and so with a finite number of recording stations throughout, it is often difficult to be sure by readings alone that surface warming or cooling worldwide is occurring with any accuracy. 

But meanwhile, the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has recently, but quietly, revised their projected estimates of the upcoming Steam Age (opposite of Ice Age) downward once again to at least appear to be grounded in reality.

It somehow makes these cold summers and winters more bearable.  Enjoy the rest of summer and fall!

[Willy]

Very good report X.

[wildfire]

I am not ready for winter I need my roof repaired and we need a small wood stove in here cause the L.P. last year was very very bad for us with the cost, we can't afford that but we will have it for back up but use the wood, i have a leaking roof. So winter can take its time getting here, lol

[XLFD]

Let me know if you need some extra firewood if you can afford the stove, we can perhaps work out a deal that can keep you warm, like a wildfire should be!  Maybe it will leave some change in your pockets, too.