Killing Ludington Avenue: The Capacity Analysis and Map of the Proposed Road Diet

[XLFD]

In the article I presented last week, A Road Diet of Deception, I revealed that the City of Ludington (COL) and the Michigan Department of Transportation (MDOT) had both failed in their duties to the public under the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA).  Although both entities had supplied replies that they certified as fulfilling my request for records concerning a closed secret meeting between unknown officials of the two entities in October, both were significantly different.  To whit, the COL response had numerous E-mails between the two public bodies that were absent in the MDOT reply, the MDOT reply contained a map and a 'capacity analysis' which was supposedly presented to the COL at that meeting, yet conspicuously absent in the COL's response.

As promised in that article, the capacity analysis and map was to be revealed here just after Christmas, and they follow with a little analysis.  Without access to the latest "Highway Capacity Manual", which explains how to calculate a capacity analysis, it's rather difficult to explain.  It also involves a lot of mathematical skills that my casual reader might lack.  Here is a recently made Powerpoint link to what goes into a capacity analysis, showing this complexity:

It is highly unlikely that even if the Capacity Analysis' author, Jason Ealy, was present, that he would be able to convey the complexities of the study to our city officials, and it is unlikely that he or other MDOT officials will be able to fully explain that to the public at a meeting, even should they take the time to try and explain the process.  It's very improbable that one of our other local media will report anything other than what the MDOT official says the study shows.  

The top of the Capacity Analysis for Ludington Avenue (CALA) acknowledges that Synchro 10 was used to achieve the numbers.  Synchro is traffic software used by those in the field of traffic engineering to make a variety of calculations.   Below is a tutorial that shows the powers and limitations of this software, for those wishing to understand this better.

Such software is limited by the ability of the user of it to enter the proper data and assumptions; quite often the output will lose what those assumptions were, unless they are otherwise provided in the report. As you may have noticed in the powerpoint, there are a lot of variables beyond the raw data that can shift the values, such as non-familiar users, lateral clearance, lane width, access points, heavy vehicle usage, etc.

Which is a good reason why I believe the LACA Sept 2017.pdf  is rather insufficient, because the underlying assumptions, raw data, and other relevant parameters are not addressed when the presentation is made.  Likewise, I think there are some erroneous findings within it, such as in the queue analysis which figures the longest queue (line of stopped cars at stoplights) for each major intersection (seen below):

The highlighted area indicates that when two lanes are taken away, the queue line going west will actually decrease from 124 ft. to 103 ft., which doesn't really make sense unless an assumption is made that some traffic will turn right or left at Jackson Rd to avoid the incredible line awaiting them at Washington Avenue and beyond.  Those annoyingly long queues at Washington that are going to more than double what they are now, simply because we lose two lanes with a restriping.

Despite mostly doubling and tripling queue lines going east and west the conclusion, not made by Synchro 10, but by the author, Jason Ealy, states that "the proposed conversion seems to have little detrimental impact on the corridor as a whole."  As noted, if you look at his Facebook page, you can gauge whether he is living in a fantasy world or not.

And there's nothing wrong with that, as long as it doesn't interfere with the real world we otherwise all share, and especially what we regularly drive on.  The map of the proposed changes is found here Reconfigured Lud Ave Map.pdf.  It looks as if they plan on adopting reverse angle parking in the downtown to further inhibit traffic flow.  As noted in the above link, by state law, forward angle parking is illegal on a state highway.  

Has this been thrown into the equation, or at least into the Synchro 10?  Those who would park downtown would now have to stop in the one and only lane and then back up into these spaces, greatly inconveniencing those already queued behind them.  This isn't much of a 'detrimental impact' on traffic flow and safety when added to the other problems newly created? 

If you answered no to that question, you may want to buy a Renaissance outfit, a sword (or light sabre), and join Jason Ealy's band of rebel dragon slayers.

[XLFD]

Definitely looking forward to hearing thorough explanations by Kevin or his buddy Jason about this road diet in a city far away from where they operate.  Kevin would have us take computer printouts provided by Jason as proof positive that losing two of five lanes of a seasonally-busy street would have no appreciable effect on level of service numbers, and bearable queueing numbers.  Neither provide us with the complete list of variables in their estimation and the raw data used to get to that conclusion.  

When I got my Master's Degree in Mathematics, I remember having to be very precise in my mathematical proofs and models for various classes.  When I didn't, I received poor grades.  I am hopeful that Kevin is taking all this time getting that data from Jason  and writing up an engineering proof that hopefully will be understandable to the regular readers.  

[AQUAMAN]

Well said X, but methinks that any data and so-called proofs those two could provide would still be theoretical Lansing-types mentality, not the reality of what will actually happen if it's in  our future. That Avenue is so crowded and filled with reckless drivers in the summer, that it's ridiculously dangerous as it is now.