Obamacare will push 2 million workers out of labor market: CBO

[Dave]

Oh my.... it just keeps getting worse and worse. I don't know what's worse... that the people that passed this monstrosity actually thought it was a good idea or that there are still people out there trying to pass this off as being a great thing. It was hard to not want to laugh out loud at one of the people at a recent White House press briefing suggesting that this report was actually good news because now people that worked less then 30 hours could have more time to spend with their families or do things that they wanted to do yet still have healthcare coverage..... getting the subsidies of course since they are not earning as much. I hate to have to tell people in the White House this but we need MORE people in the workforce working full time jobs... more people with more jobs means more people spending money in the economy which means more tax revenue.... pretty simply economic policy yet the dopes in the White House apparently can't figure that out.

Obamacare will push the equivalent of about 2 million workers out of the labor market by 2017 as employees decide either to work fewer hours or drop out of the job market altogether, according to estimates released Tuesday by the Congressional Budget Office.

The analysis set off a furious debate in Washington. The White House argued that the reduction is positive because it means Americans will forgo jobs or extra work to stay home with their children or strike out on their own as entrepreneurs. Republicans, however, said the report amounted to an “I told you so” moment and that subtracting the equivalent of 2 million workers can’t be good for the economy.

---

SEE ALSO: College presidents, corporate CEOs to help Obama in end-r...

---

The CBO said the number of workers dropping out of the labor force will grow from 2 million in 2017 to 2.5 million by 2024.

Although part of those numbers are attributed to job cuts, the vast majority represent workers who decide it makes more sense to stay home or work fewer hours, weighing the higher taxes they pay in the workforce versus their qualifications for benefits if they drop out.

“CBO estimates that the ACA will reduce the total number of hours worked, on net, by about 1.5 to 2 percent during the period from 2017 to 2024, almost entirely because workers will choose to supply less labor — given the new taxes and other incentives they will face and the financial benefits some will receive,” the nonpartisan tax agency said in its economic outlook.

Enlarge Photo

The CBO also said the Affordable Care Act’s exchanges will enroll 6 million people by the first deadline in March, which is 1 million fewer than earlier projections. But by the end of the decade, the number of people without insurance coverage will have dropped from 45 million today to 30 million, the agency said in its annual update on the economic and budget outlook.

Powered by spending cuts, higher taxes and a slowly improving economy, the federal deficit will drop to less than a half-trillion dollars next year but then begin a steady climb to more than $1 trillion a year by 2022, according to CBO projections.

Slower recovery

The CBO said the economic recovery from the deep recession from December 2007 to June 2009 is taking longer and won’t be as strong as previous recoveries. Analysts say the labor market’s fundamentals have shifted.

Obamacare is one part of that because it rearranges incentives for businesses and workers.

White House chief economic adviser Jason Furman said the health care law is about giving workers more choices. He compared it to Social Security and Medicare, which he said gave senior citizens the incentives and financial wherewithal to retire.

In this case, he said, the CBO’s numbers show that the health care law will let younger workers make decisions about whether to remain in the workforce.

“Maybe a spouse who wanted to be part-time so they could spend more time with their family now is able to do that,” Mr. Furman told reporters. “Somebody else who wanted to start a business and become an entrepreneur and was terrified of doing it because they’d lose their health insurance, is now able to do that too, and switch and take a chance on creating jobs and growing the overall economy. So there’s a lot of new choices that this will facilitate.”

At the same time, Mr. Furman said he doesn’t agree with the CBO’s numbers. He argues that agency analysts didn’t take into account lower health care costs and higher worker productivity that would create hundreds of thousands of jobs a year.

Republicans, though, used the jobs number to attack Senate Democrats seeking re-election in November.

“This is one of the perverse incentives in this terrible law. It actually encourages able-bodied people to not work,” said Sen. John Barrasso, Wyoming Republican. “We should be doing all that we can to increase labor force participation. The health care law actually pushes it in the opposite direction.”

Deficit progress

Taking the budget as a whole, the CBO said Congress has made substantial headway on cutting spending and raising taxes, which will reduce the deficit to $514 billion this year and $478 billion in 2015.

But it will rise by 2016 and steadily grow to more than $1 trillion in 2022.

The CBO report said the economy isn’t rebounding as fast as is typical after a recession and that poor growth means less revenue for the Treasury. That means the cumulative deficit over the next decade will be $1 trillion more than projected last year.

National debt, which is the accumulation of annual deficits, is at its highest level since the aftermath of World War II. The CBO said debt held by the public will represent 80 percent of gross domestic product by 2024, the end of the budget window.

The report will give ammunition to those who argued that tax increases or spending cuts should have been delayed while the government pursued more economic stimulus over the past few years.

But the CBO suggested that the problems are more structural, given the aging U.S. population and women’s participation in the labor force.

The report said the labor market for the rest of this decade will recover more slowly than analysts predicted last year.

The analysts said that at the deepest part of the recession, GDP was 7.5 percent below the economy’s potential output. By the end of 2013, just half of that gap had been closed, meaning the economy still has plenty of room to improve.

“With output growing so slowly, payrolls have increased slowly as well — and the slack in the labor market that can be seen in the elevated unemployment rate and part of the reduction in the rate of labor force participation mirrors the gap between actual and potential GDP,” the CBO study said.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/feb/4/cbo-obamacare-push-2...

[XLFD]

 

Meanwhile, Nancy Pelosi and the White House spin machine are effectively telling us that the Affordable Care Act allows us the choice to work less and get subsidized for health care by others who make the choice to work more for you.  What a fiasco; I really wish they would work less.

[XLFD]

“Opportunity created by affordable, quality health insurance allows families in America to make a decision about how they will work, or if they will work.” --Jay Carney's epitaph for liberalism

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2014/02/06/the-comment-made-by-jay-...

[Dave]

I seriously think a lot of these people in Washington were repeatedly dropped on their head as children.

[Dave]

As much as the president and fellow democrats want to try and trump up the successes of Obamacare, the numbers are simply not backing up what they are saying. New sign ups for both the private insurance and Medicaid are weak at best, as far as the private insurance goes, many of the people signing up for Obamacare were people that already had insurance but due to Obamacare were booted off the insurance they had... as far as Mediciad goes, again most people are people that were going to sign up regardless of Obamacare. While I'll concede that sure, there were some people that Obamacare has helped so far, the people the law was specifically drawn up for simply haven't showed a lot of excitement in getting insurance, those people of course being the uninsured.

Byron York: Number of Obamacare sign-ups is greatly inflated

Democrats from President Obama on down have been touting Obamacare's sign-up numbers. Even after the system's disastrous rollout, they like to point out, roughly three million people have signed up for private insurance, while 6.3 million have signed up for Medicaid.

"Already, because of the Affordable Care Act, more than nine million Americans have signed up for private health insurance or Medicaid coverage," Obama said in the State of the Union speech. "Nine million."

The number is a little larger now, since the figures are a few weeks old. But there is strong new evidence to suggest the administration's claims are grossly exaggerated and deeply misleading. Obamacare is not doing nearly as well as the president wants you to believe.

First, Medicaid. This week, the health consulting firm Avalere found that only 1 to 2 million of the 6.3 million who signed up for Medicaid were new enrollees brought into the program by Obamacare. The rest were people who were eligible and would have signed up for Medicaid irrespective of Obamacare, in addition to people who were already on Medicaid but were renewing their status. (The researchers reached their conclusion by comparing the Obamacare sign-ups with a recent period before the new health law went into effect.)

If the Avalere report is accurate — and experts are taking it seriously — then less than one-third, and perhaps less than one-quarter, of the new Medicaid sign-ups cited by the administration were previously uninsured people gaining coverage because of Obamacare. That's a major shortfall.

The numbers are important not only for policy, but for politics. In recent months, as the failures of the Obamacare website left the administration reeling and its supporters disheartened, Democrats often pointed to the number of Medicaid sign-ups as an example — the only example — of a shining success for Obamacare. Now that success looks a lot less shiny.

"It's a surprise because of all the outreach and the fact that Medicaid is free — there is no premium paid by individuals," said health care analyst Bob Laszewski. "This really is perplexing — they can't give it away!"

Then there are the roughly three million people said to have signed up for private insurance. In mid-January, the Wall Street Journal reported that a relatively small percentage of the new sign-ups were previously uninsured Americans gaining coverage through Obamacare. The rest were people who were covered and lost that coverage in the market disruptions largely caused by Obamacare.

A McKinsey and Co. survey cited by the Journal found that just 11 percent of private insurance signups were people who previously had no coverage. Other surveys found that about one-quarter of new sign-ups were previously uninsured.

Whatever the precise number, it appears that a large majority of the activity in Obamacare private coverage sign-ups is essentially a churn operation: The system throws people out of their coverage, and then those people come to the system to sign up for new coverage, and that is reported as a gain for Obamacare.

Put the two together — Medicaid and private insurance — and it's clear the response of the nation's uninsured to Obamacare has been far less enthusiastic than the administration claims. Which means that the Affordable Care Act has gotten off to a terrible start at its core mission, insuring the uninsured.

The Congressional Budget Office has estimated there are 57 million uninsured people in the United States. Even if Obamacare worked perfectly, an estimated 31 million would remain uninsured when the law is fully in effect. And if Obamacare continues to sputter and fail as it has so far, that number of still-uninsured could be much higher. Was it worth roiling the nation's health care system to achieve such lackluster results?

It's still possible Obamacare will catch on. But if the predictions of several health care experts are right, it will likely cause still more dislocation later this year in the small-group market, which has more people in it than the individual market that was cast into chaos late last year. More people will have their coverage cancelled, forcing them into the still-troubled federal exchange. And when they buy coverage to replace what they had, the administration will claim more success for Obamacare. Meanwhile, the White House will continue to point to inflated Medicaid numbers as even more evidence of success.

Put aside the political debate: Something is essentially wrong with Obamacare.

http://washingtonexaminer.com/byron-york-number-of-obamacare-sign-u...

[Dave]

And here again is another example of why Obamacare is a farce. Just as was warned, people are having trouble finding doctors that will take their insurance. I probably sound like a broken record here but maybe, just maybe, if someone had read the bill before they passed it they might of been able to avoid the mess they are in.

Obamacare enrollees hit snags at doctor's offices

After overcoming website glitches and long waits to get Obamacare, some patients are now running into frustrating new roadblocks at the doctor's office.

A month into the most sweeping changes to healthcare in half a century, people are having trouble finding doctors at all, getting faulty information on which ones are covered and receiving little help from insurers swamped by new business.

Experts have warned for months that the logjam was inevitable. But the extent of the problems is taking by surprise many patients — and even doctors — as frustrations mount.

Aliso Viejo resident Danielle Nelson said Anthem Blue Cross promised half a dozen times that her oncologists would be covered under her new policy. She was diagnosed last year with non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and discovered a suspicious lump near her jaw in early January.

But when she went to her oncologist's office, she promptly encountered a bright orange sign saying that Covered California plans are not accepted.

PHOTOS: The battle over Obamacare

"I'm a complete fan of the Affordable Care Act, but now I can't sleep at night," Nelson said. "I can't imagine this is how President Obama wanted it to happen."

To hold down premiums under the healthcare law, major insurers have sharply cut the number of doctors and hospitals available to patients in the state's new health insurance market.

Now those limited options are becoming clearer, and California officials say they are receiving more consumer complaints about access to medical providers. State lawmakers are also moving swiftly to ease some of the problems that have arisen.

"It's a little early for anyone to know how widespread and deep this problem is," said California Insurance Commissioner Dave Jones. "There are a lot of economic incentives for health insurers to narrow their networks, but if they go too far, people won't have access to care. Network adequacy will be a big issue in 2014."

The latest travails come at a crucial time during the rollout of Obama's signature law. Government exchanges and other supporters of the healthcare law are trying to boost enrollment, particularly among young and healthy people, ahead of a March 31 deadline.

Of course, complaints about outdated provider lists and delays in getting a doctor's appointment were common long before the healthcare law was enacted. But some experts worry the influx of newly insured patients and the cost-cutting strategies of health plans may further strain the system.

Maria Berumen, a tax preparer in Downey, was uninsured for years because of preexisting conditions. The 53-year-old was thrilled to find coverage for herself and her husband for $148 a month after qualifying for a big government subsidy.

She jumped at the chance in early January to visit a primary-care doctor for long-running numbness in her arm and shoulder as a result of bone spurs on her spine. The doctor referred her to a specialist, and problems ensued. At least four doctors wouldn't accept her health plan — even though the state exchange website and her insurer, Health Net Inc., list them as part of her HMO network.

"It's a phantom network," Berumen said.

It was no surprise to her family doctor, Ragaa Iskarous. She has run into this problem repeatedly with other patients in the last month, the doctor said. "This is really driving us crazy."

Berumen said she was seen by a neurosurgeon Thursday — after state regulators intervened on her behalf.

Insurers say they are working hard to resolve customers' problems as they arise, and they continue to add physicians to augment certain geographic areas and medical specialties.

"Any huge implementation like this comes with a lot of moving parts," said Health Net spokesman Brad Kieffer. "There is a learning curve for everyone, and we expect as time goes on these issues should dissipate."

Looking to head off potential problems, government regulators and patient advocates are pushing for tougher rules to ensure health plans provide timely access to care.

Last week, the California Assembly approved legislation enabling people who lost coverage because of the overhaul to keep seeing their doctors if they're pregnant or undergoing treatment for cancer or other conditions.

Nelson, the cancer patient in Orange County, and her family lost their previous coverage when Aetna stopped selling individual policies in the state last year. After numerous complaints to her new insurer, Anthem, and to public officials, the company said it would cover visits to her current oncologist through March 31.

Nelson said such a temporary extension doesn't solve the problem, and as a result, she's rushing to check out other policies for herself before open enrollment closes in March.

A spokesman for Anthem said the company "continually works to update its provider directories to ensure accuracy" and helps customers with these issues on a case-by-case basis.

Nationwide, about 70% of new insurance plans under the healthcare law feature relatively narrow hospital networks compared with many existing plans, according to consulting firm McKinsey & Co.

"It's pretty clear insurers responded to greater competition by trying to hold down costs through narrower networks," said Larry Levitt, senior vice president at the nonprofit Kaiser Family Foundation. "Insurers have made the judgment that people prefer lower premiums to broader networks."

Health policy experts and some consumer advocates say the trade-offs may pay off. Despite some consumer complaints, the exclusion of some higher-priced hospitals such as Cedars-Sinai Medical Center from nearly all exchange plans is a positive sign, they say.

"The Affordable Care Act often gets accused of not doing enough to control costs," said Ian Hill, senior fellow at the Urban Institute, a Washington think tank. "Excluding some of the most expensive hospitals and providers who don't demonstrate high-quality outcomes is one ripple effect that may help."

The Covered California exchange began enrollment in October without the provider directory it had promised. Delays and glitches ensued for weeks, frustrating many consumers who complained that it was impossible to compare health plans without details on what hospitals and doctors were included. In November, the exchange updated its directory.

The exchange said its 11 health plans offer more than 58,000 physicians to choose from, representing 80% to 90% of practicing physicians in the state.

The California Medical Assn. credits the exchange for fixing many of the initial problems but maintains that the state's data are still flawed, often because of incorrect information from health plans. Insurers blame doctor's offices for frequently giving wrong information.

Scott Marshutz of Dana Point said he picked a Blue Shield PPO plan in the exchange so he and his wife would have greater choice of doctors.

But when he booked an appointment recently with his orthopedic surgeon, the doctor's office said it wasn't taking Covered California plans.

"I'm wondering how many other people have experienced this," he said, "and if it will backfire on the whole system."

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-obamacare-patients-20140205,0...