Snyder grabs dominating 22-point lead on Bernero

[Dave]

Its still early on and anything could happen but for the time being, Rick Snyder has a sizeable lead on his competitor. I can't say I have much interest in the pro-union Bernero. As i've mentioned before, if it wasn't for the fact that Snyder isn't a typical politician, I don't know if i'd be all that interested in his campaign either. If Snyder won and ended up being not what was hoped for, he would still probably be better then what we had the last several years.


LANSING — Republican Rick Snyder’s 22-percentage point lead over Democrat Virg Bernero in their race for governor comes with overwhelming
support from independent and outstate voters.

Snyder leads Bernero, 51%-29%, according to a poll by EPIC/MRA released exclusively to the Detroit Free Press and WXYZ-Channel 7. Snyder even has a slim lead among Bernero’s most natural constituency —
union members and their families.

The survey is EPIC/MRA’s first since Snyder and Bernero won their parties’ primaries.

The poll shows a steep climb for Bernero, whose populist pitch pitting the fortunes of Wall Street against the economically stressed middle class
must overcome Snyder’s catchy campaign as a political outsider who’d
bring his business success to government.

Independents favored Snyder 50%-15%, with 35% undecided. Snyder leads by more than a 2-1 margin outside Wayne, Oakland and Macomb counties and by 12 percentage
points in the three metro Detroit counties.

The poll also showed a shift in the electorate, with slightly more voters identifying themselves as Republicans and 49% calling themselves conservatives; 23%
say they are liberals.

Governor's race expected to tighten

Snyder will zoom into the fall campaign with voter goodwill and momentum from the Aug. 3 primary, according to the poll.

Snyder leads Bernero in all almost all voter categories, according to the phone poll of 600 likely voters conducted Aug. 21-23.

The Ann Arbor venture capitalist has much stronger support from his Republican base than Bernero has from Democrats. Nearly one-third of
Democrats are either undecided or support Snyder. Among those who
consider themselves politically moderate, Snyder leads Bernero, 43%-34%,
with 23% undecided.

On Aug. 3, twice as many people voted in the Republican primary as in the Democratic one. Snyder got 72,000 more votes in a five-way race than Bernero got in a two-man Democratic race.

The new poll shows Republican momentum continues for Snyder, who leads by a wide margin among those most likely to vote Nov. 2.

About half of voters (48%) view Snyder favorably, while 22% have a favorable opinion of Bernero.

And more voters consider themselves Republican than Democrat, 39% to 36%; 25% call themselves independent.

In 2008, Barack Obama swept into the White House on a wave of new, young voters that gave Democrats a significant advantage. Two years ago,
voters who identified themselves as Democrats had an 8 percentage-point
advantage over those calling themselves Republicans, said Bernie Porn,
who conducted the poll.

A spokesman for Bernero pointed out that the candidate overcame a big deficit to win the Democratic primary.

“We’re very confident that once people learn more about Snyder’s record of outsourcing jobs and Virg’s record of creating jobs and fighting for
Main Street families, the polls will change,” Cullen Schwarz said.

As Labor Day — the traditional start of the general campaign — approaches, Bernero trails badly among voters critical to him.

He is virtually tied with Snyder among voters with union ties — ones he needs to pull off what now would be an upset. Bernero had the support of
the state’s largest labor unions in the Democratic primary, in which he
defeated House Speaker Andy Dillon.

Bernero’s “Wall Street vs. Main Street” campaign theme seeks to attract voters who see their economic stability slipping away. But those most worried about the
economy are far more likely to support Snyder, the poll shows.

The wealthy Snyder spent nearly $6 million of his own funds to win the GOP primary, and presumably, has a cash advantage over Bernero, who relied
largely on TV ads paid for by unions.

Bill Nowling, spokesman for Snyder, said Snyder expects the race to tighten.

“We think the numbers reflect what Rick has said all along: If you have a positive vision and action plan for the future, people will respond,” he
said.

The poll shows that Snyder’s lead among voters cuts across gender and all regions of the state, although Wayne, Oakland and Macomb counties might be up for grabs. Among those voters, who account
for 40% of the statewide electorate, Snyder has a 12-point lead over
Bernero, with 26% undecided.

Bernero’s support among black voters is relatively weak, at 60%; 29% are undecided.

The one bright spot for Bernero is a barrage of negative advertising that is certain to come, said pollster Porn. The state Democratic Party has
previewed its strategy to portray Snyder as a multimillionaire who
benefitted by outsourcing jobs overseas when he was an official with
Gateway Computers in the 1990s — a claim Snyder calls distorted.

The same tactic worked in 2006, when a Democratic campaign decried Republican candidate Dick DeVos for outsourcing U.S. jobs to China when
he led Amway.

Porn said Bernero must improve his image and create doubt about Snyder.

“Until that plays out and we see the impact on the ads, you can’t assume it’s over,” Porn said. “But Bernero has got a big hill to climb, and he’s not
well-positioned with the Democratic base, and pro-choice voters and
union members.”

Bernero supports abortion rights and Snyder opposes abortion except in cases of rape, incest and saving a woman’s life. Snyder is favored by 69% of voters who oppose abortion, while
Bernero is preferred by 43% of those who support abortion rights.

Contact CHRIS CHRISTOFF: 517-372-8660 or [e-mail]

[Edie Lindsey]

That pollster has definitely got to change his name. But then again maybe he gets more hits on "Google" for his Porn polls. Bernero is a thug.

[XLFD]

Kudos to Snyder for visiting nearby Manistee's Northpoint Industries. His statewide town hall meetings he held during the primaries showed he realizes that Michigan is bigger than just the population-heavy SE portion of the state. I still am not clear whether Bernero understands this.