Accidentally Interpreting Statistics With Sheriff Cole

[XLFD]

If you tossed a coin in the air 100 times, you would expect it to come up heads half of the time, or 50  times.  If tails came up four times in a row, there is still a 50% chance either heads or tails will come up the next time.  If you tossed the coin 100 times with your lucky rabbit's foot, and hoped for heads, you wouldn't change that percentage.  Simple probability.

 

There are 100 days between the Saturday of Memorial Day weekend and Labor Day inclusive, and a finite amount of accidents that take place on the US 10 Highway between the city limits of Scottville and Ludington each year.  This amount doesn't vary too much year by year, and no protocol of policing has been a "magic bullet" for curing the problem significantly.  One would believe that having no road patrols would encourage more traffic violations and hence more behavior that leads to unsafe driving and accidents.  One would also believe that there would be a point where too many road patrols would lead to no more significant help at crash reduction, perhaps increase accidents, and be a waste of resources. 

 

Most people are aware of the "halo effect" that surrounds the police officer's vehicle, and that this effect is temporary and disappears shortly after the police car is out of sight.  The effect also sometimes has an adverse effect whereas vehicles tend to change their behavior (be it unsafe speeding, passing, turning, etc.) so as to be well within the law, but present a danger due to initiating the change in a manner that is unexpected to other drivers, who may also be adapting their behaviors to the police presence.  Let us not also forget that each traffic stop creates extra roadway dangers, whether it be to the rubbernecking of passing motorists or the need for vehicles to go around the stopped vehicles and officer close to or in the roadway. 

 

There is no established study that I can find that directly correlates the effect of increased "police visibility" in significantly reducing traffic crashes, particularly if the increased visibility is a short term procedure.  This manual in chapter three, looks at the advantages and disadvantages of marked/visible police presence and unmarked/discrete enforcement, but mainly concludes a mixed approach based on a concerted plan is best, and that visibility is not an issue of crash prevention.  That's why I looked with skepticism of the City of Ludington Daily News (COLDNews) article stating conclusions about the recent 'accident free' Memorial Day weekend on the US 10 corridor.  It said:

 

If you felt like there was something missing in Mason County this Memorial Day weekend, you’re right.  The big crash.

Mason County Sheriff Kim Cole said Wednesday that there were zero reported traffic crashes along U.S. 10 through the county. He’s chalking that up to increased patrols and increased visibility by deputies and troopers from the Michigan State Police.

Mason County deputies and MSP troopers combined for 54 traffic stops over Memorial Day weekend, with MCSO deputies writing seven tickets and MSP troopers writing nine.

“It was a great weekend for us,” Cole said. “I had been in contact with First Lieutenant Kevin Leavitt of the Hart Post over the last month and he has the ability to track when the crashes are occurring on U.S.10 and we worked up patrols around those times. It obviously paid off. Not only did we not have any injury accidents, we didn’t have any crashes. We couldn’t have done it without the State Police.”

Cole added that five of Mason County’s seven tickets were actually for seatbelt violations.

“Those are tickets that wouldn’t have been written if those people had just buckled up,” Cole said.

“Over the past few years that section of U.S. 10 has been rated as one of the most dangerous roads in Michigan,” MSP F/Lt. Kevin Leavitt wrote in an e-mail. “Most of this rating is due to intersection-related violations and speed.

“Our goal in traffic enforcement is always to educate the public on traffic laws. Most of the time just the visibility of a fully marked patrol vehicle reminds motorists to slow down and be aware of their driving as it relates to safety and traffic laws.

“Because of the history of traffic crashes in this stretch of roadway, Sheriff Cole and I have discussed the importance of a marked increase in visibility of marked patrol units throughout this area. This past holiday weekend, law enforcement is pleased to report that there were no traffic crashes on US-10 in this traditionally high crash area.”

Leavitt asked motorists to keep in mind that vehicle traffic will increase throughout the summer and asked motorists to try to remember the following:

• Drive with care and caution

•Obey all traffic control devices

• Be aware of other vehicles exiting and entering the roadway

• Don’t drive distracted

http://www.ludingtondailynews.com/news.php?story_id=71481

 

The advice in this article is good, the conclusions at the front are not so good.  Sheriff Cole can theorize that the increased patrols and visibility led to no accidents, but how can he point to an accident that would have happened if there were less patrol cars out?  Effectively, we lucked out by having four traditional traffic accident-heavy days in a row without any incident on the US 10 corridor.  Flipping four tails in a row, is uncommon, but happens 1/16th of the time.  But let's check the results out for the next weekend where Sheriff Cole once again saw some statistical anomalies, but this time the mere two day weekend after Memorial Day spawned at least four injury-accidents in this corridor:

 

 

Did not Sheriff Cole learn from the previous weekend that increased visibility and patrols made accidents a thing of the past?  There was no press release this week telling us how unsafe the roadway was this weekend, nor could he chalk up the reason for the dramatic amount of crashes between 1:47 PM on Saturday afternoon, and 5:50 PM on Sunday to the public.  Did he unwisely reduce patrols/visibility?  Apparently, he did not care to remedy any deficiency or weakness that the weekend showed, immediately after those results on Monday, since Tuesday saw two more injury accidents on the corridor (the first two red squares are the same accident):

 

 

It looks as if the heads are catching up to the tails in the 100 days of summer. 

[masonco]

Actually I only see the state guys out there not the mason county guys. But then again I see Cole is continuing with his spending spree for new autos, boat $, vests and the list continues. Where is the hidden funding coming from?

[XLFD]

Remember that half of a million dollars that Sheriff Fiers was able to give back to the County coffers over his four years...

Sheriff Cole is planning on using that as credit, but I got to give Cole credit for one thing.  When he planned on cleaning the ducts at the jail, two companies, Hankwitz and Van's, had what turned into meaningless preliminary bids of $18,000 to do so.  The County Commission got a hold of it, hired an architect for duct cleaning and pushed it to $50,000 due to the architect running the bidding system.  The County Commission replaced a ranger shack at the front of Mason County (Pumped Storage) Campgrounds for $215,000, a meaningless structure at a meaningful price that is currently under construction.  The County Commission also okayed putting down $175,000 for putting up a new grandstand roof at the fair.  I can't really justify the roof there in the first place, since the grandstand area is used one maybe two weeks out of a year, and if it is raining the events to watch are usually postponed. 

Sheriff Cole is actually a better fit with the wastrels in charge of this county, and I wish I had more time to deal with those folks.

[Jane]

Tourists and old people need to realize ,US 10 from Shell Station (airport/big boy)out to Scottville is a HIGHWAY not an expressway, but definitely not a city "street". There is even a sign when heading eastbound just past one intersection that says SLOW TRAFFIC KEEP RIGHT!!

• Get to the RIGHT LANE if GOING SLOWER than everyone else.

• IF turning left off the highway, keep up your speed when getting into the turn lane and out of the left lanes way, THEN slow down.

• Use the ACCESS ROADS AND LIGHTS to turn LEFT ONTO the HIGHWAY(and left from the highway into the businesses that have them available).

1. From Lowes, Taco bell, tractor supply lots etc...there is an ACCESS ROAD TO WALMART LIGHT, it is over past tractor supply to the west to get out onto the side road by walmart.

• From Meijer and Home Depot(theatre, staples, applebees etc..) there is a ACCESS ROAD(side roads) to a STOP LIGHT for turning LEFT ONTO THE HIGHWAY, use it!!
• If you are next to a car and in the left lane and someone is tailgating you GET OUT OF THE WAY. Some of us need to GO, don't block us in!

If  you need to drive slow, get out of the left lane and into the right until you are near your destination, then turn right into a lot on the opposite of the road of your destination and come back THRU the STOP LIGHT MOVING STRAIGHT FORWARD across the HIGHWAY and into your destinations lot. This may sound like a pain having to turn around and wait at a light to cross the highway rather than turning left, but it is much MUCH safer for everyone.

Most of the accidents are from people making left turns from side lots onto the highway or from the highway into destination.

IF you are old and have slow reflexes, poor vision, and startle easily(nothing wrong with  that, just not safe driving), do what you can to not turn left onto or from the highway, it is safer for YOU and US younger faster drivers.

IF you are  a tourist, quit treating our highway that we all are getting to work or whatever on like a sunday drive. Know where you are going, then follow the above guide for old people. It is easier on everyone if you go past your destination and turn around rather than going 40 all the way from airport out to Meijer!

[Willy]

All good points X and Jane!

[masonco]

For one thing it is not just the OLD PEOPLE driving excessively slow. DISTRACTED DRIVERS ARE THE BIGGEST ISSUES.  Actually the elderly who drive slow avoid driving that area when it might be busy. Most of them take the back roads to get where they want to go.

But then again,  I would rather those with slowed reflexes whether it be from drugs, alcohol, fatigue, texting, phoning, visual issues  or other distractions, drive in the left lane and not rear end someone  cause a person ahead of them decided to get a burger...OR someoneis busy unwrapping their burger as they pull out on someone.

Jane...I don't really see that many OLD people driving that area during rush hour, but I do see a lot of people guilty of distracted driving who drive varied speed. I would reccomend you slow down since MSP are making their presence known through the entire area. (I haven't seen many county buys patrolling as the newspaper states.)

[masonco]

Thank you eye...You pointed out many of the issues I've observed in that stretch. I rarely see any OLD people driving through there and tailgating or stopping traffic to make a right hand turn during rush hour.

Tourists? we should be thankful they are here and give them respect.

If you travel through that area at speed limit now you get most lights green! speed through there, the ones following speed limit will meet you at the next red light while saving a couple gallons of gas in the process.

[Willy]

Left turning is not the problem it's poor driving when turning that causes accidents. The same way foolish people pull out of a business onto the highway right in front of oncoming traffic. That causes a lot of accidents.

[XLFD]

EyE,

Your seven gripes are well founded and I think the last two (6 & 7) could be effectively combatted by using enforcement techniques by the LPD at the proper times and regularly.

But banning left turns from non-lighted intersections is too much and impractical.  If your business was not connected to back roads taking you to lights, you would have to make a right turn and then get turned around at the next lit intersection.  This extra traveling, turning is more dangerous. 

I would rather operate outside the law and plan any road trip to minimize left turns.  I call it the counterclockwise route.  If you have 'n' amount of places to stop on highway 10, and no set order for stopping (as you might do while shopping), you can plan a route where you should have to make at most 1 left turn onto the highway. 

That is, if you come from Ludington and plan to stop at all the grocery stores on the highway as far as Meijer, you'd first stop at Shop & Save, then Meijers, then Wal-Mart, then Save a Lot.  The only left would be turning into Meijers. 

As for enforcement on US 10, I think the MCSO should think to introduce a couple of motorcycle cops and run them regularly but randomly during the daytime hours.  Studies seem to show motorcycle patrols could be a more effective way of getting people to comply with the law, because you never know when one will pop out and get you.  Some good old fashioned speed trapping.

[AQUAMAN]

Visit Taco Bell like me and Dave, it's soooooo muchoooooo farting away in the wind. Such good fun too!