Extremely Wrong Forecasts

[XLFD]

Back in March, the Florida Times reported on forecasts made by experts about the 2022 Hurricane Season, as tropical storms and hurricane often batter this southern state.  They offered two different experts in the field to broadcast their predictions of the severity likely to befall their readership.

AccuWeather's 2022 Atlantic hurricane forecast calls for 16 to 20 named storms, six to eight of which could become hurricanes. Three to five of those hurricanes could become classified as major, which means wind speeds of 111 mph or higher.   Four to six hurricanes could have a direct impact on the U.S., AccuWeather experts said.

Colorado State University, well known for its meteorological expertise, had their experts' predictions fall along the same lines:

Factors playing a role in the two forecasts include the lack of El Niño and warmer-than-normal waters in the subtropical Atlantic.  NOAA was predicting La Niña would continue into summer, keeping tropical storm formation high.  If La Niña persisted through September, it would be the third time since 1950 the phenomenon has been around for three consecutive hurricane seasons.  Both 2020 and 2021 were above average in storm and hurricane numbers.

The hurricane season is more than half over as we start September, with three storms that were given names early in the season, yet there hasn't been a named storm since July 3. Having no named storm or hurricane in August hasn't happened this century in the Atlantic basin.  The last two times this happened was in 1997 and 1961.  

Tropical Storm Danielle formed in the North Atlantic on September 1st, ending a 60 day streak without a named storm.  This was the second longest streak without a named storm in the Atlantic on record; in a year that the experts predicted was going to be hurricane-hyperactive, there has yet to be a hurricane.  

This could all change as we progress to the end of the season, so we can't totally laugh at the so-called weather and climate experts just yet.  However, if we see these experts failing to accurately forecast short term phenomenon like hurricanes in the year's immediate storm season in the Atlantic basin, how are we to believe their forecasts of global climate change catastrophes by the end of the decade and increasing events of extreme weather?  Especially when a lot of indicators show a trend towards cooling and less extreme weather events, just as you might expect with a cyclical pattern of weather and climate.

[Dave]

I believe this isn't the first time that 'experts' have been wrong about hurricane season predictions. Needless to say that I don't generally put a lot of faith in such predictions.

[Willy]

The Climate alarmists have been falsely predicting that the World's climate will collapse in the near future causing a panic in people so they will do anything to prevent it from happening. Even giving up their freedoms and rights as well as trying to crush the US economy and the World's as well. People need to understand that the true cause of change in the climate has to do with 3 main processes beyond our control. And 1 of them is not greenhouse gasses. And even with those processes the Climate has barely changed over all. As a matter of fact civilization is thriving due to the beautiful climate the Earth is enjoying.

The 3 main causes for any major changes in the climate are the Sun and it's cycles, the Earth's fluctuating orbit around the sun and the Earths inclination to the Sun. Don't be fooled by the propaganda that will force the World into submission to Globalist whose only desire is to control all life on Earth. And they're doing a pretty good job I must say. Climate change is all over the media, TV, movies and our education system. If we believe them, the Earth will be on fire in the not so distant future. A very disturbing concept that is already in play is to Geo-engineer the Earth's atmosphere no matter what it takes. They have even talked about using nuclear explosions to fill the atmosphere with dust to cool the Earth. These people are insane.

[XLFD]

Thanks for the supplemental material.  Science, like statistics, can be used by the learned to confuse issues to the unwary that have been tacitly trained to trust scientists over science, experts over experiments, and actuaries over actualities.  The best advancements in science comes from skepticism of the so-called experts promoting unproven doctrines accepted as fact. 

Skepticism of anything based on Covid dogma (shutdowns and masks work but Ivermectin and HCQ treatments don't, etc.) led to ostracism of many extraordinary scientists and doctors who sacrificed their careers when they went against the Big Lie dogma of Big Pharma and their partners in Big Government.  It's the same playbook we have seen for decades of Global Warming/Climate Change, where contrary data disputing the claims get ignored while those purporting the narrative will get all the funding.