The most recent statewide statistics indicate two things: 1) the ten states with the highest vaccination rates have higher Covid-19 case rates than the ten states with the lowest vaccination rates, and 2) states with ongoing mask mandates have higher Covid-19 case rates on average, than those without.
This seems to go against the narrative stridently echoed in the media, commercials, and other literature purporting to tell us that what we are experiencing is a 'pandemic of the unvaccinated' or that 'wearing masks will prevent Covid spread'. The conclusion naturally offered by them is that governments, schools, and workplaces should impose mask and vaccine mandates, because it's what will save lives. The data does not reflect that, in fact they indicate the reverse: regarding Covid-19, wearing masks and getting vaxed is hazardous to your health.
The data used in this article comes from two CDC sources, another was used to find current mask laws:
1) the CDC's current (11-19-21) community transmission by state data (map below)
2) the CDC's current (11-19-21) vaccine distribution tracker
3) Littler's current (11-18-21) statewide facemask orders
Vermont is for Vaccination
Combining data from the first two CDC sources, we look at the top ten vaccinated states with vaccinated rates over 64%, and then the bottom ten states with less than 50% vaccinated and get the following lists after we look on the interactive map for the current case rate statistics:
Number of people fully vaccinated: 450,749
Percentage of population fully vaccinated: 72.24
Case rate (cases in last 7 days/100K): 362.7
2. Rhode Island
Number of people fully vaccinated: 761,791
Percentage of population fully vaccinated: 71.91
Case rate (cases in last 7 days/100K): 265.9
Number of people fully vaccinated: 964,009
Percentage of population fully vaccinated: 71.72
Case rate (cases in last 7 days/100K): 347.1
4. Connecticut (M)
Number of people fully vaccinated: 2,550,060
Percentage of population fully vaccinated: 71.52
Case rate (cases in last 7 days/100K): 133.7
5. Massachusetts (M)
Number of people fully vaccinated: 4,863,781
Percentage of population fully vaccinated: 70.57
Case rate (cases in last 7 days/100K): 269.8
6. New York (M)
Number of people fully vaccinated: 13,198,426
Percentage of population fully vaccinated: 67.85
Case rate (cases in last 7 days/100K): 218.2
7. New Jersey (M)
Number of people fully vaccinated: 5,977,160
Percentage of population fully vaccinated: 67.29
Case rate (cases in last 7 days/100K): 142.8
8. Maryland (M)
Number of people fully vaccinated: 4,042,361
Percentage of population fully vaccinated: 66.86
Case rate (cases in last 7 days/100K): 102.1
9. Washington (M)
Number of people fully vaccinated: 4,910,855
Percentage of population fully vaccinated: 64.49
Case rate (cases in last 7 days/100K): 185.5
10. Virginia (M)
Number of people fully vaccinated: 5,481,307
Percentage of population fully vaccinated: 64.22
Case rate (cases in last 7 days/100K): 124.5
The ten states with highest vaccination rates range from between 102.1 to 362.7 in case rates, averaging 215.23 in that category. The seven states on this list between rank 4 and 10 all have at least indoor mask mandates, which explains the '(M)'.
West Virginia is for Without Vaccination
Let's look at the least vaccinated ten states:
Number of people fully vaccinated: 5,216,907
Percentage of population fully vaccinated: 49.14
Case rate (cases in last 7 days/100K): 77.6
Number of people fully vaccinated: 3,355,930
Percentage of population fully vaccinated: 49.14
Case rate (cases in last 7 days/100K): 126.7
Number of people fully vaccinated: 1,473,064
Percentage of population fully vaccinated: 48.81
Case rate (cases in last 7 days/100K): 136.3
Number of people fully vaccinated: 2,250,994
Percentage of population fully vaccinated: 48.42
Case rate (cases in last 7 days/100K): 69.3
46. North Dakota
Number of people fully vaccinated: 368,413
Percentage of population fully vaccinated: 48.34
Case rate (cases in last 7 days/100K): 446.2
Number of people fully vaccinated: 1,387,438
Percentage of population fully vaccinated: 46.62
Case rate (cases in last 7 days/100K): 85.6
Number of people fully vaccinated: 2,237,829
Percentage of population fully vaccinated: 45.64
Case rate (cases in last 7 days/100K): 63.6
Number of people fully vaccinated: 260,997
Percentage of population fully vaccinated: 45.1
Case rate (cases in last 7 days/100K): 412.1
Number of people fully vaccinated: 800,023
Percentage of population fully vaccinated: 44.77
Case rate (cases in last 7 days/100K): 210.4
51. West Virginia
Number of people fully vaccinated: 743,319
Percentage of population fully vaccinated: 41.48
Case rate (cases in last 7 days/100K): 308.1
The case rates range between 63.6 and 446.2, with sparsely populated North Dakota and Wyoming showing very high cases rates indeed. Yet, the average case rates for the least vaccinated states is a modest 193.49. None of these states are among the 17 states that have longstanding mask mandates.
The USA average of case rates at this time (found in the first CDC source) is 198.7, illustrating that the ten least vaccinated states fall below average at 193.5, and that the ten most vaccinated states, at 215.2, are nearly 10% over the national average of case rates. Despite what you hear from Big Media or Big Medical, Covid-19 spread is significantly more prevalent in highly vaccinated states.
Additionally, among the ten other states with mask mandates (none of those mandates recently imposed with the intent of stopping viral spread) you find none among the 15 states with lowest case rates. High vaccination rates go with mask mandates and both go with elevated case rates. When one looks at those ten states, their ranking in vaccination rates and their current case rates we see this: 13. Oregon 156.9, 14. New Mexico 550.6, 15. Colorado 383.9, 16. California 84.5, 19. Delaware 235.8, 20. Illinois 240.8, 22. Hawaii 54.8, 31) Nevada 178.1, 34. North Carolina 141.1, 36. Kentucky 260.5.
Those ten states have a 228.7 average case rate, that's more than 15% above the national average. Despite what you hear from Big Media or Big Medical, Covid-19 spread is significantly more prevalent in states with longstanding mask mandates.
Neither of those sources will ever combine that data and make the same observation-- to the contrary they keep trying to tell us all that the current surge in cases across the country is because of the sins of the unvaxed and the unmasked. In reality, those states that are not using masks and not getting the jab in large numbers are significantly outperforming those that have embraced those prophylactics.
The current epidemic appears to be buoyed by the vaxed and masked, according to the latest CDC stats.
Interesting study, X. I haven't weighed in on the topic much yet as I see the pandemic, related studies and associated politics as evolving. I sit and watch, and take a middle line and I do see a pathetic stupidity in the politics and opinions. I let a lot go in one ear and out the other without really having time to get involved in opinions.
But, I have wondered how the vaccinated are spreading the virus to the unvaccinated. And that just makes sense then, to me, if there is a vaccination, that everyone with a risk should get vaccinated. I believe in vaccinations overall, having lived through polio era. I also believe in the power of flu and virus and have lost family member in 1919 and 2020 due to the virus at the time.
What bothers me with this masking issue is that until everyone is vaccinated, the virus IS spread more without mask (my opinion) by more airborne particles expelled. But in children who are not that susceptible and to upturn our schools and and economy over masking kids or closing schools, needs to be rethunk, imo.
Another thing that bothers me is that I heard, in passing, a doctor on a TV news program last week (sorry I didn't catch the name) say, "there was no flu last year" just bolstering my silent opinion that a lot of the CV19 deaths may have been by flu.
There are a lot of factors in the states which you show in this study, that may not be considered, such as weather affects, weather timing... all in the south, influx of unvaccinated migrants, and pinpointed in the midst of an evolving virus. So I still make no definite conclusions.
Question I would like to consider is the true answer of how many deaths now are vaccinated or unvaccinated persons? In my passive listening, it seems that the mainstream media are blaming deaths more on unvaccinated than vaccinated. Have you shown any studies on this aspect? Thanks if you can link any. Meanwhile I am swayed by the fear and will prolly get a booster because i think the virus will evolve (like a flu will) and a more specific booster may prevent a more serious infection.
It's hard to get factual scientific information nowadays, since politics has encroached into many of the sciences, rendering some of their results as little more than political propaganda. It's why I try to look closely at raw data and statistics in a way that reveals there may be faulty conclusions marketed as facts.
Here the CDC's own stats seem to indicate a counter-narrative to their marketing, but it is far from conclusive. As you note, this time of the year has many states with low case rates in the warm south, and many of those states have low vaccination rates which could inordinately skew the data towards my title thesis, since northern states are cold and typically higher-vaxed, but folks are spending more time in the more dangerous indoors. A lot of other variables apply too, so I cannot make any absolutes-- just illustrate what the raw data shows.
Lastly, I am not familiar with a comparison of vaxed and unvaxed deaths or death rates, and that should make one suspicious that there is nothing readily available. I did also look at hospitalization rates (as of 11-18-21), and found that the ten high vaxed states have significantly lesser hospitalizations per 100,000 people on average than low-vaxed states (11.3 vs. 17.7), making it easier to swallow that the vaccines may have some therapeutic effect at the least, in lessening the effects of Covid-19. I would rather eat horse paste first.
Good points FS but if the virus is evolving, how would the doctors know that another booster would help. Just like the flu, they guess as to which strain will show up in any given year. I think the drug companies have barrels full of covid vaccines left over and they are using this as an excuse to get rid of it and keep the $$ flowing. With the lying media it's hard to find the truth.
I agree Willy, that it's all pretty much a guessing game with flu vaccines and probably same with covid, but what I do think is that even if it's not the exact strain vaccine to flu virus that the body has better immunity. With the covid evolving crap shot, it's just as the vaccinated age 80-plus group now has the most deaths range 55/100k (that NPR study link above) that calls for a new booster. Maybe it will use up old vaccines as the CDC is struggling for answers bit if vaccines can be made of the new variant, it should be more specifically effective
Still, even with 55/100k death rate, the percentage of population is .05% and the flu/pneumonia generally has a higher death rate every year, so there is a lot of drama going on with CV19 vaccine and mask mandates. Why is there not perpetual mask and vaccine mandates for the yearly flu? Just asking?
Reply to Freedom Seeker's question: "Why is there not perpetual mask and vaccine mandates for the yearly flu? Just asking?"
We are approaching 800,000 Covid deaths in the US.
In the 2019-2020 flu season, there were 20,000 deaths due to influenza."
RK, I don't know where you received your stats, but first off, a flu season is only about 20 weeks, you are comparing it with nearly two years of Covid-19. According to the CDC, there were 24K to 62K deaths due to the flu in that season, but there were assuredly some flu deaths misdiagnosed as Covid deaths.
The prior two flu seasons saw US deaths at 61,200 and 79,400-- or 140,000 in total, and why this may only be less than 20% of the 800K total (a majority of those coming after masks and vaxes were widely available and used), the 'official' Covid-19 death toll is probably a lot less.
One may recall the CDC saying back in 2020 that only 6% of the fatalities claimed to be Covid-19 deaths were due solely to Covid, this coincides with the British getting a remarkably similar result when looking at co-morbidities. The flu wreaks havoc each year in nursing homes, but often isn't given the credit on the death certificates that Covid-19 received over the last two years.
Thus the number of deaths the flu caused in the two years prior to Covid-19 are likely underreported, while Covid-19 deaths have been over-reported on death certificates. The difference between the real totals may not be that significant when you consider a population of 330 million.
thanks X for the reply to RK. I have a hard time replying to anyone who wants to pick a fight and sounds condescending with "Got it?" While I don't take pandemics or politics of pandemics lightly, I do believe the numbers of flu, comorbidities, and covid have been greatly skewed since March 2020. I heard on a radio talk show the other day that the 1919 flu killed a significant higher percentage of people worldwide than Covid has, (sorry I didn't catch reference), the covid19 pandemic is still a small percentage of deaths even with skewed numbers. When all the politics settle out of this it will be interesting to see some true numbers of real causes of deaths. I have also heard more frequently "there was no flu last year" argument and "no flu due to masking and caution due to covid." Maybe the cure for the flu has been found! Still my point, if masks cured the flu last year, why hasn't that protocol cured covid19? Maybe I "don't got it" cause this just doesn't make sense to me how the flu could disappear with masks but covid19 continues and mutates. Another alarming trend is that fully vaccinated and boosted people are still getting Omicron mutant.
FS. The flu statistics were counted into the Covid numbers and you are correct, the overall Covid numbers have been skewed and exaggerated. This entire Covid situation has been a boon to the left. Everything they want has come true. Control over the people and control of the economy. What more could a true leftist ask for. All of this time there have been treatments available that if promoted would have saved most of the people who have died from Covid but Fauci and the left refused to allow them to be administered and they continue to this day to downplay and block any effective treatment. The left is a truly evil entity.
Nobody is "blocking" Covid drugs. There is neither proof nor evidence that Covid precautions are a "communist plot." The only thing the government is trying to control is a deadly disease that has now killed over 800,000 Americans, many of whom might still be alive if not for the lies and misinformation spread by anti-maskers and anti-vaccine Luddites. All legal drugs in the US must be approved by the FDA. To do so they must first pass rigorous testing standards and protocols. The drug companies support FDA standards because they provide legal protection should a drug cause adverse reactions. Without standards, the market would be filled with quack medicines like hydroxychloroquine, apricot extract, and other snake oils. Testing is underway for additional Covid treatments, which will be released when they are proven safe and effective. There is a program for providing life-saving drugs before final approval.
From the US Center for Disease Control:
"The overall burden of influenza (flu) for the 2019-2020 was an estimated 35 million flu-related illnesses, 16 million flu-related medical visits, 380,000 flu-related hospitalizations, and 20,000 flu-related deaths."
"I still feel that it should be an individual choice, and maintain my opinion that people more at risk should be more cautious."
So, FS, should millions of people at risk because of compromised immune systems (2-3% of US population) be forced to quit their jobs, stop travelling, and stay inside their homes because other citizens refuse to follow minimum safety procedures, such as getting vaccinated, social distancing and wearing a mask?