Just a few weeks earlier than this last year the East had a huge tropical system that caused the worst flooding the Susquehanna water shed had ever seen disrupting many events including a local Fair that had not been cancelled in more than four decades.

     Now with Halloween and the elections less than 2 weeks away, it has occurred to me. Pennsylvania has been described by some pollsters as the new Ohio. Typically Republicans find their ways to the polls in far greater numbers than Democrats in bad weather conditions. There are several very close races out in the East here which could be swayed by a very few numbers of votes. Any predictions?

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I figured there might be historical data that may say something about bad weather and voters, but I found a relatively recent survey conducted for the Weather Channel.

 

The survey, conducted by Ipsos for The Weather Channel in late August, targeted registered voters in the so-called battleground states where the presidential race is considered most competitive – Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Other key findings included:

  • Already-decided voters are more certain they’ll vote. Among those who plan to vote and know which candidate they’ll vote for, 19 percent say bad weather will impact whether they make it to the polls, vs. 35 percent of undecided voters.
  • In bad weather, Mitt Romney supporters are more likely to vote. Among registered voters, more voters (28 percent) supporting President Barack Obama are likely to say that bad weather would have a “significant or moderate impact” on their getting to the polls than Romney voters (19 percent).
  • Icy conditions are the biggest weather roadblock. Among registered voters age 55 and older, 12 percent say icy road conditions would impact their ability to get to the polls. In the Northeast and the Midwest, 11 percent and 10 percent respectively cite icy roads as a potential roadblock to voting.
  • Rain and cold temperatures can keep voters home. In the western states – including Colorado and Nevada – 6 percent of registered voters say they wouldn’t make it to the polls in “unseasonably cold” temperatures. Rain would keep 5 percent of voters home in those same western states, according to the survey.
  • Income levels make a difference. If you make less than $50,000 a year, you’re more likely to “probably or definitely not” vote in inclement weather than those making more than $50,000 a year.

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