Fatal Attacks Against Police Officers: A Trend Analysis

[XLFD]

This week, after a final pre-trial hearing for Lowell Fetters, an alleged shooter in a domestic dispute, the Chief of Police for Ludington, Mark, Barnett said:  "In light of last week's events, it's apparent that the shooting of a police officer is too prevalent.  This town has had its fill of it — I know my department has."

Over the last twenty months two law enforcement officers in Mason County have been shot.  In 2012, Ludington police were sent to a domestic dispute involving Mr. Fetters, somehow the scene escalated leading to the shooting of a Ludington officer.  Luckily, it was non-fatal.  This month, the Michigan State Trooper making a seemingly routine traffic stop in the east part of the county was not so lucky, getting shot in the head presumably by a young man with some serious issues with the law. 

 

Coupled with some of the other local high profile abductions (by Sean Phillips, Mark McCallum) and other murders (by Patrick Bentley, James Belanger, etc.) just in Mason County, one could easily make the logical leap that it is incredibly dangerous for police officers nowadays, and only getting worse, as Chief Barnett intimates.  But that would be a fallacy. 

 

In fact, in the United States in 2012, the amount of Law Enforcement Officers (LEOs), which includes the local police all the way up to the FBI, that were killed in the line of duty was never less until you go back to the 1950s!  See the chart.  The 120 officers killed last year were a positive trend that has been continuing back to 9-11-2001 and before, as we will soon see.

 

If you can remember just a couple years back, LEO organizations with their allies in big media were making the case that there was a "war on cops" that justified more funding, gun control efforts, and further paramilitary training.  This mantra stills finds its users in situations where there has been a tragedy, but the raw statistics just don't back it up.  The pundits with an agenda blame budget shortfalls, anti-government sentiment, gun ownership and other causes for the rising violence against police...

 

But to do so they look at the statistics narrowly, and ignore the bigger picture.  After making major claims in 2011, the last two years they have ignored what happened last year and what is happening this year in their further reporting.  And even though last year was the lowest fatality numbers for LEOs since 1959, this year looks to be even safer for them.  As of 9-18-2013, eleven less LEOs have been killed than at the same time.  More impressive is that firearms related deaths are down 30%, ten less than last year.

 

And lets look at the historical implication of today's number of fatalities compared with past eras.  Perhaps the most dangerous time ever to be a police officer in America was back during the prohibition era, as "revenuers" ran the risk of ambush for finding illegal stills (feel free to draw an analogy with the present criminalization of drugs that were used back in the 'prohibition era' such as marijuana and cocaine with less sanctions). 

 

The chart on the side has a year, and the amount of LEOs killed in the line of duty those years.  As you can see, every year had over 190 LEO deaths with an average over these years of just over 240, and 3604 deaths total.  Those years could perhaps claim the mantle for having a "war on cops", and there was a whole lot fewer LEOs and regular people for that matter.  

 

If we consider the population of the US in 1930 was about 123 million, and over 310 million now, one would expect about 700 LEO deaths nowadays if the trend continued, but it's about 1/6 of that.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The civil unrest issues of the 1960's didn't really start to show up on the stats until the middle of the decade, when it carried through the end of Vietnam, Watergate, and Jimmy Carter, subsiding some after the advent of Reagan.

 

Once again, the annual numbers never dipped below 190, however, it was a bit less bloody period than prohibition, with 3285 deaths over the 15 years total, and an average of 219 deaths per year.  Interestingly, since 1981 the number of deaths of LEOs have always been below 200, except for the 240 that died in 2001, a direct consequence of the 60 LEOs killed on 9-11. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

Which brings us to our last 15 years, where the actual amount of police officers in the US is over 1.1 million in 2008, over 5% more than in 2004, since 1992 that growth rate is 25%, a bit higher than our population growth rate.  Yet with more officers on the street, more people on the street, the numbers are considerably less than the prohibition and Vietnam era as regards fatalities. 

 

In these last 15 years, most of them post-911, there have been 2354 total deaths to LEOs in the line of duty, which averages out to 156 per year (152 if you factor out 9-11 as 'special').  So back in 1930, we had over 60% less people, but had more than 60% more cop-killings.  As stated, if you were a LEO, you were 6 times more likely to get killed in 1930 than you were in 2012, and around 3.5 times less likely from 1974. 

 

Granted, the death of one law enforcer doing his job is one too many, but despite the crooks being portrayed as more violent and sophisticated, the streets being somehow less safe, it has never been less dangerous to be a cop, and its only trending downward.

 For more statistical info: 

NLEO Memorial

Officer Down Memorial Page

 

[Willy]

Good article X. Although noone wants to see people killed on the job, according to statistics, Fishermen  are almost 7 times more likely to die while working than police officers. Fishing is the most dangerous work in the U.S. which  experiences 127.3 fatal injuries annually per 100,000 full-time workers

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/most-dangerous-jobs-in-america-2013-...

The next most hazardous jobs rounding out the top 10 are

• 2. Loggers/related job titles: Death Rate 102.4 /100,00 in 2011. Still in second place, but with fewer deaths.
• 3. Aircraft Pilots and Flight Engineers: 57.0/100,000 in 2011. Up from #6 in 2008.
• 4. This one was Number 7 Most Dangerous in 2010, but became deadlier: Refuse & Recyclable Materials Collectors: 41.2/100,000 in 2011.
• 5. Was # 6 in 2010,but became deadlier. Roofers: 32/100,000 in 2011.
  
• 6. Structural Iron and Steel Workers: 26.9/100,000 in 2011 -- Not even in the Top 10 in 2010.
• 7. Was #4 in 2010, becoming safer. Farmers and Ranchers: 25.3/100,000 in 2011
• 8. Same rank as 2010, but higher in death rate. Driver/Sales Workers and Truck Drivers: 24/100,000 in 2011.
• 9. Electrical Power-Line Installers and Repairers: 20.3/100,000 in 2011. Not in the Top 10 for the last several years. Workers in these occupations have been complaining that the work is deadlier than people think it is from seeing the BLS Dangerous/Deadliest List.
• 10. Taxi Drivers and Chauffeurs: 19.7/100,000 in 2011. Not in the Top 10 i

The police profession has an 18.6 per 100,000 rating.

[XLFD]

So, what Aquaman has done for a living is seven times more dangerous than what Chief Barnett does?  And being a garbageman is more than twice as dangerous than being a patrolman? 

And they provide us with fish and the ability to take the smelly guts away?  Maybe it is time to redefine the concept of heroes risking their lives for the rest of us? 

[Johnny]

Well this entire post seems rude and just wrong to post after everything that happened... Grow up.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7DK1ks0d4nE

[Willy]

Murph

When you say "after everything that happened" are you referring to all of the workers in the other professions who died while serving the public and who did not get a procession which held up traffic? You miss the point here. The police had no legal right to impede the flow of traffic for unofficial business. I guess you would be OK with the family and friends of victims of other job related deaths to gather en-mass and slowly drive in a procession while blocking the flow of traffic. You would probably be the first to lay on the horn.  Noone has shown disrespect for the officer and we're all saddened by his passing but that gives noone the right to thumb their noses at the law. Would it be OK with you if I had a one car procession and drove slowly up US 31 because a friend of mine died on the job? The laws are to be followed by everyone.

[XLFD]

Please feel free to point to the rude and wrong aspects of the post, E Murph.  In a small area like this, having two police officer shootings in two years should be the best time to analyze the situation of safety for police officers.  When the authorities and the 'normal' media dominate the situation, you get a lot of people try to demagogue how to prevent it in the future without looking at the overall picture.  Rights may be taken away, policies may be put in force, laws may be hastily crafted, because of a perceived problem that may not exist.

You get situations where the facts are distorted, like what happened in 2011 with many media outlets reporting a "war on cops" when there was a slight, but statistically reasonable, uptick on police deaths in the figures of 2009 and 2010.  But when you have 2009 being the lowest year on record since the 1950s, you can reasonably expect an almost average year (like 2010) to be a bit higher.

[Johnny]

Tom has the safest job...not working would be the safest....

you are welcome for paying taxes...

[XLFD]

Unfortunately, those that die when unemployed are invariably killed when on the 'job'. 

E Murph, you speak of others being rude and posting inappropriately, but I cannot find a better example of that except through your body of work while here at the Ludington Torch.  If you're going to comment on someone else here make sure you have your ducks in a row, otherwise it's just a personal attack and/or libel, and it can get you thrown off.  Read the terms of service, please.

[AQUAMAN]

If the guy whom pays the most taxes wins, then where are we? Get an accountant that can avoid the noid. POOR & More wasted monies thrown down the dishonest drain I say, lol. Deadliest catches is where the most risk is, not exactly my type of fishing either. When you are a "sheeple", do you really have a risk?; or is it just another fancy way of saying, let's all agree we are dumbed-down, and can't think out of the "box". To those that "won't be programmed by Uncle Sam", or want to think for themselves, I praise you. Terms of service, not withstanding.

[AQUAMAN]

Tom was a steady reliable employee with 2-3 jobs, including LFD, until Mayor Henderson mucked it up for him a few years back Murph, look at the archives next time before you rush to judgement please sir. It's all common knowledge here. Thanks Erik.

[Dave]

E. Murph seems to have a lot to say but doesn't really say a thing.

I challenge him to back up anything and everything he says.... IF he can, maybe some will take him seriously. If he can't? Well, in that case his input is basically flatulence.

[XLFD]

Let's not insult flatulence; real good flatulence can sometimes have a lot of substance behind it.  E.Murph puts that same type of substance out in front.

[XLFD]

One thing I found interesting on the site was that the murderer of the one Ludington Police officer (Arlo Slagle) killed in the line of duty received a 20-40 year sentence, and served only eight years for what sounds like a cold-blooded killing. http://www.odmp.org/officer/12335-patrolman-arlo-slagle

As for Trooper Butterfield,  I think his write up was more fair than you give them credit for: 

Trooper Paul Butterfield was shot and killed while making a traffic stop on Custer Road, near Townline Road, in Mason County, at approximately 6:20 pm.

A few minutes after radioing in the stop, a citizen called 911 to report a trooper had been shot. Responding units located Trooper Butterfield on the ground suffering from a gunshot wound to the head. He was flown to Munson Medical Center where he succumbed to his wounds while in surgery.

Using a vehicle description provided by Trooper Butterfield as he stopped the vehicle, investigators were able to identify a suspect and located him, along with a female accomplice, at a convenience store in a neighboring county approximately two hours later. Officers exchanged gunfire with him as they made contact, wounding the male subject before taking them both into custody.

Trooper Butterfield was a U.S. Army veteran and had served with the Michigan State Police for 14 years. He is survived by his fiancee and his father.

 http://www.odmp.org/officer/21828-trooper-paul-butterfield